Prison governors and probation officers may be granted the authority to veto the early release of inmates under proposed revisions to a new early release scheme, according to government sources involved in the review. The scheme, championed by Andy Burnham, was set to come into effect on September 2 and could result in the release of more than 5,000 prisoners after they serve only a third of their sentences.

The potential veto would allow these officials to block the release of prisoners they consider a danger to victims or the public. Another option under consideration is to exclude certain categories of offenders—including killers, rapists, and child sex offenders—from early release eligibility. However, officials caution that broadly excluding large groups, such as all child sex offenders or rapists, would significantly reduce the scheme’s effectiveness and undermine efforts to ease severe overcrowding in prisons, which currently operate at around 97 percent capacity.

A Ministry of Justice (MoJ) source involved in the review acknowledged that granting prison governors and probation officers veto powers could help ensure that higher-risk individuals remain incarcerated. “One of the options we’re looking at is giving prison governors and probation a veto so you target the most risky individuals and keep them behind bars,” the source said. However, another official noted that implementing a formal veto may require primary legislation, potentially delaying the scheme further.

The urgent review of the early release plan followed a recent announcement by the prime minister to pause its rollout, amid growing public concern. This backlash intensified after it was revealed that two of the individuals convicted for the killing of PC Andrew Harper are eligible for early release under the current scheme. The timing of the review’s conclusion remains unclear, though Justice Secretary Alex Norris has said officials are examining "who might leave and when," alongside improving communication with victims. An update on the review is expected next week.

Burnham’s team has been working closely with ministers and experts from the HM Prison and Probation Service, studying risk assessment criteria and the scheme’s impact. The early release policy applies to prisoners serving standard determinate sentences, allowing for release after serving as little as one-third of their term. While excluding manslaughter offenders—which would apply to two of PC Harper’s killers—is being considered, this group represents fewer than 1,000 prisoners jailed since 2017.

In contrast, excluding broader categories such as rapists and child sex offenders would affect a much larger population. Since 2017, nearly 5,500 rapists and close to 17,000 child sex offenders have received fixed-term sentences, often averaging around nine years. MoJ officials warn that such exclusions would drastically reduce the capacity relief the scheme aims to provide. One source emphasized that “there are far too many child sex offenders in custody so it would make the whole early release scheme redundant if there was a blanket ban.”

Former justice secretary David Gauke, who led last year’s sentencing review that introduced the scheme, cautioned that without these reforms, prisons could run out of space as early as November. The MoJ reiterated that careful risk assessments must underpin all releases to balance prison capacity concerns with public safety. It also noted that more selective approaches—such as considering gender or offence type for non-violent crimes—could conflict with human rights obligations under the European Convention on Human Rights.

As officials continue to weigh these complex factors, the government faces the challenge of managing prison overcrowding while addressing public and victim safety concerns.