Denmark’s Defense Intelligence Service has issued a warning that Russia may be preparing limited military actions against a NATO member in the coming months, raising concerns of a potential escalation in the conflict surrounding Ukraine. The agency, known as the FE, described a “low but growing risk” that Russia could deploy a small contingent of ground troops or launch long-range strikes targeting infrastructure supporting Ukraine from neighboring countries.
FE chief Thomas Ahrenkiel suggested that Russia’s approach might mirror tactics used prior to the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, where forces moved into Russian-speaking areas without official insignia, under the pretext of protecting ethnic Russian minorities. He also indicated the possibility of Moscow orchestrating false-flag operations, such as using Ukrainian-made drones to carry out attacks on NATO territory. According to Ahrenkiel, the objective behind such actions would not be territorial conquest but rather to sow discord and division within the NATO alliance.
Alongside the potential for limited direct military engagement, the Danish intelligence service pointed to an expected intensification of Russia’s hybrid warfare strategy against Western targets. This includes cyberattacks, sabotage, and other covert operations intended to undermine infrastructure and destabilize governments. The FE referenced recent incidents attributed to Russia, such as the cutting of critical undersea communication cables in Europe and an attempted drone strike on Germany’s Leipzig/Halle Airport, which have prompted calls from European Union members for additional sanctions against Moscow.
The FE warned that forthcoming hybrid operations by Russia could have more severe consequences than previous incidents, potentially causing not only infrastructure damage but also increased risks of civilian casualties. The Danish agency characterized these actions as a “desperate move” by Russia as pressure mounts on multiple fronts.
The intelligence assessment from Denmark stands as one of the clearest warnings from within the NATO alliance regarding Russia’s potential to expand its military tactics beyond Ukraine’s borders, underscoring ongoing tensions and uncertainties in Europe’s security environment.