Ukraine’s top military intelligence chief has warned that Russia’s capacity to sustain its invasion could be exhausted by 2028 due to heavy military and economic losses. Lieutenant General Oleh Ivashchenko, head of Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Directorate (HUR) since January, said Russia’s current attrition rates are unsustainable and are depleting Moscow’s resources at an alarming pace.

Ivashchenko’s assessment comes amid ongoing intense fighting more than four years into the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Speaking from Kyiv, where HUR’s headquarters have been repeatedly targeted and largely destroyed by Russian missile strikes, Ivashchenko cited daily casualty figures he said demonstrate the dire toll on Russian forces. According to his briefings, Russian forces suffer approximately 1,000 to 1,200 new recruits per day, while losing between 1,400 and 1,550 personnel daily, with about 60% killed in action. This fatality rate is extraordinarily high compared to historical conflicts, with most modern wars typically showing far lower death-to-wounded ratios.

Western intelligence sources broadly corroborate these figures, noting that Russia is losing substantially more soldiers each month than it can replace—by an estimated 6,000 troops. Advances in drone and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies have further increased battlefield lethality by improving target detection and range while complicating efforts to evacuate the wounded under constant surveillance.

Based on current losses, Ivashchenko estimated that Russia’s armed forces and economy have resources to continue the war for about another year, but that viability will likely end by 2028. Over continued fighting, Russian casualties could increase by more than 750,000 personnel, potentially amounting to nearly 10% of Russia’s male population aged 25 to 49.

The general described declining morale among Russian troops and population, highlighting widespread unwillingness to fight or support the conflict. Despite territorial setbacks, Russia has avoided a full mobilization amid concerns over potential social unrest. Reports from Ivashchenko’s office indicate that Moscow’s military leadership has requested up to 800,000 new troops to supplement its forces; however, Russia’s army is reportedly only capable of effectively training and equipping between 300,000 and 500,000 soldiers at once. New recruits reportedly face an average lifespan of 20 to 30 minutes once deployed to the front lines.

Ukraine, while also suffering heavy losses estimated between 525,000 and 625,000 casualties by independent analysts, has been able to inflict disproportionate damage on Russian forces through rapid innovation and enhanced strike capabilities. Kyiv has also increased its reliance on foreign fighters and is seeking to expand such recruitment to lessen the strain on domestically mobilized troops. However, Russia has similarly drawn on foreign fighters, with estimates exceeding 28,000 individuals from African countries, and is receiving additional military personnel and missile support from North Korea. Ivashchenko noted that around 8,000 North Korean troops are currently deployed in Russia’s Kursk region, with numbers possibly rising to 50,000. North Korea has also supplied Russia with ballistic missiles, significantly enhancing Moscow’s ability to conduct precise strikes, including on Kyiv.

Ukrainian officials are grappling with Moscow’s attempts to improve battlefield connectivity through satellite launches and are actively targeting Russian space infrastructure. Ivashchenko called for increased international sanctions targeting the components that Russia sources from countries including the United States, Japan, Taiwan, and some European states to disrupt these programs.

The conflict continues to evolve amid sustained high-intensity combat and mounting humanitarian costs. Ukraine’s intelligence chief framed the situation as unsustainable for Russia in the medium term, underscoring both the human and material toll of the ongoing war.