In early 2022, concerns about a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine were widespread as approximately 160,000 Russian troops amassed near the Ukrainian border. President Vladimir Putin’s longstanding view that Ukraine is an artificial state with an illegitimate government fueled these fears. While some analysts initially considered the possibility of invasion as mere posturing, the consensus grew that a large-scale military operation would be a risky and ill-advised undertaking for Russia. Despite these reservations, Russia launched the invasion, which has since resulted in a protracted conflict marked by fierce Ukrainian resistance supported by Europe and the United States.
As the conflict has persisted, Russia has increasingly employed hybrid tactics across Europe, blending military and nonmilitary actions short of full-scale war. Recent incidents include a drone attack on a passenger train station near the Ukrainian-Polish border shortly after a train carrying former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and other European officials departed, and a drone armed with explosives discovered near a Ukrainian cargo plane at Leipzig/Halle airport in eastern Germany. Additionally, Russian reconnaissance drones have flown over key industrial targets connected to arms supplies for Ukraine, with some attacks causing significant damage.
The term “hybrid warfare” typically refers to cyberattacks, misinformation campaigns, and other deniable activities intended to destabilize opponents while avoiding direct military conflict. However, analysts warn that Russia’s current actions are pushing this strategy toward a riskier threshold. Attacks attributed to Moscow have inflicted material damage and could potentially have led to casualties—circumstances that appear more a matter of chance than design. The escalation heightens concerns about possible miscalculations or a deliberate intensification of conflict.
Russia’s motivation behind these aggressive moves appears linked to a desire to end the war with Ukraine on terms favorable to Moscow. Continued European financial and military assistance to Kyiv is viewed by the Kremlin as a significant obstacle to achieving victory. As a result, Putin has issued increasingly stark warnings and conducted more overt provocations aimed at pressuring European nations to reduce support for Ukraine.
Strategic assessments suggest that while Russia’s conventional forces remain overstretched and battle-weary, the Kremlin may still contemplate further military actions, potentially targeting NATO member states in the Baltic region. Some experts highlight the possibility that Russia could launch a limited incursion, for instance into Estonia, to test NATO’s response and disrupt the alliance’s unity and political will. Such a move, driven by perceptions of an existential conflict with NATO, would be high-risk and could escalate quickly beyond initial intentions.
Though intelligence agencies are likely to detect any preparations for renewed military aggression, permitting some early warning, the uncertainty posed by hybrid and limited conventional threats persists. Analysts emphasize that even localized attacks could provoke significant instability and strain alliances.
Reflecting on Russia’s initial 2022 invasion, which stemmed from overconfidence and led to a drawn-out conflict, current evaluations suggest that any further aggression would be motivated by desperation and carry the risk of even more severe consequences.
In response to these developments, experts advocate for a comprehensive approach by European leaders. This includes transparent communication with the public regarding the nature of Russian threats, enhancing defense capabilities through intelligence and accelerated rearmament, and bolstering support for Ukraine to demonstrate resilience against Russian pressure. Such measures aim to deter escalation while preparing for a range of potential contingencies, with or without direct American involvement.