Vladimir Putin’s reliance on hybrid warfare techniques, including recent drone attacks targeting military logistics hubs in Europe, reflects a calculated strategy rather than a sign of desperation amid setbacks in Ukraine. Analysts note that as Moscow’s conventional military campaign remains largely stalemated, coupled with increased Ukrainian strikes on Russian infrastructure, Russian authorities continue to deploy unconventional means to disrupt Ukrainian military supply lines and weaken their adversary.
A recent incident involved three drones detected at Leipzig airport in eastern Germany, a key logistics center used by NATO and the German armed forces. The drones were reportedly aimed at a Ukrainian Antonov cargo plane tasked with transporting vital military aid to Ukrainian forces. Moscow’s actions mirror a longstanding military principle of targeting enemy supply routes to undermine combat effectiveness, a tactic dating back to World War II.
Experts underscore that Russia’s hybrid warfare approach aligns with the doctrine first articulated by General Valery Gerasimov, head of the Russian armed forces since 2013. Known as the “Gerasimov Doctrine,” this strategy emphasizes integrating conventional military operations with “military means of a concealed character,” including cyberattacks, propaganda campaigns, and covert operations. The doctrine underscores the utility of combining diverse tactics to secure strategic objectives.
Russia’s hybrid tactics are not new and have been prominently displayed in previous conflicts. For instance, during the 2008 conflict with Georgia, Russian forces disrupted the country’s internet and power infrastructure before launching traditional assaults. The 2014 annexation of Crimea further exemplified this approach, with unmarked Russian troops—dubbed “little green men”—seizing control of key locations while providing Moscow with plausible deniability. These actions culminated in Russia securing control over Crimea and its crucial Black Sea naval base at Sevastopol.
Since then, Russian authorities have expanded their hybrid warfare repertoire. This includes high-profile incidents such as the 2018 poisonings in Salisbury and arson attacks on properties linked to figures supporting Ukraine, including those connected to former UK Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer. Following such events, Western governments have amplified their countermeasures. The UK, for example, launched an extensive campaign targeting Russia’s GRU intelligence agency after the Salisbury incident, leading to a significant reduction in Russian covert operations on British soil.
In light of recent warnings by President Putin targeting UK military bases involved in supporting Ukraine, experts predict that future Russian actions against Western interests will likely take the form of untraceable cyber or hybrid attacks rather than direct military strikes. Observers emphasize the urgent need for the West to bolster its deterrence capabilities against these non-conventional threats. Germany’s response to the Leipzig drone incident—limited mostly to closing Russian cultural centers—has been criticized as insufficient compared to the broader, more effective measures implemented by the UK.
Ultimately, analysts argue that the West must demonstrate to Russia that the risks and costs of deploying hybrid warfare tactics outweigh any potential gains. Such a robust deterrence strategy, they contend, is critical to preventing the escalation of covert Russian attacks on European soil and maintaining stability amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.