Vladimir Putin’s claim to have restored law and order following the violent chaos of the 1990s is facing significant challenges as Russia appears to be slipping back toward a state of increasing lawlessness. The ongoing war in Ukraine has exacerbated these difficulties, raising concerns that the country may be returning to a period reminiscent of the so-called "wild 90s."

Official statistics reveal a complicated picture. While the overall crime rate in Russia fell to a 16-year low last year, serious crimes surged to a 15-year high. Organized crime-related offenses increased by approximately one-third in a single year, driven by heavily armed criminal gangs vying for control over territory and resources. At the same time, informal vigilante patrols are growing across the country, particularly in southern regions. The Russian police force—the Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD), theoretically numbering around 940,000 personnel—is under considerable strain, largely due to the redirection of manpower toward the war effort in Ukraine.

Although Russia is nominally one of the most heavily policed countries globally, the MVD’s effective strength is diminished. About 150,000 personnel are civilian staff, and many uniformed officers perform duties that in other countries are handled by civilians. Recruitment is a persistent problem, with approximately 25 percent of police posts vacant and some local units operating with up to 40 percent fewer officers than authorized. A police captain, speaking anonymously on social media, captured the dilemma, noting that while officers now have better equipment than before, they are in short supply.

This shortage is aggravated by financial incentives tied to the war. Police officers earned an average of 60,000 rubles (£620) monthly last year, while soldiers volunteering for the Ukraine front receive nearly four times that amount, plus lump-sum bonuses. Many officers have left the force to join the military or work in defense factories offering substantially higher pay. Historically, some police supplemented their earnings through corrupt practices, but efforts since 2012 under Interior Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev, himself a career officer, to curb petty corruption reduced these informal income sources. As a result, officers’ economic conditions have worsened, prompting a recent uptick in bribe demands and staged operations.

The war has also influenced criminal patterns. Former fighters—many recruited from prisons or traumatized by combat—are implicated in a 25 percent annual increase in criminal offenses. Weapons, including grenades and machine guns, are reportedly being smuggled back from front lines, contributing to a spike in armed crime, especially near border areas. Rostov-on-Don, headquarters for Russia’s military operations, has emerged as the most dangerous city in the nation.

Despite these troubling trends, Kolokoltsev has emphasized a 3 percent decline in overall crime and maintained that public confidence in the police remains strong. Nonetheless, concerns persist within the ministry about the post-war period, when numerous battle-scarred veterans will return home with potential mental health issues such as PTSD. Historical parallels, including the aftermath of the Soviet-Afghan War in the late 1980s, suggest a possible surge in violent and organized crime stemming from such veteran reintegration challenges.

Russia’s current state apparatus is stronger than the late Soviet Union’s, yet fears linger that escalating lawlessness could destabilize governance and impose significant economic costs—potentially exceeding 0.5 percent of GDP. Beyond domestic implications, increased crime could lead to cross-border spillovers of weapons, drugs, and violent actors.

Putin’s government has promised to improve police salaries, but resources appear prioritized elsewhere. The Federal Security Service, which handles political policing, remains near full strength, and the paramilitary National Guard is only about 20 percent understaffed. Meanwhile, the MVD’s volunteer patrol groups, now exceeding 150,000 members, and the rise of informal vigilante actions underscore a declining public faith in formal law enforcement.

Having built his rule on restoring order and stability, Putin faces the risk that his legacy may instead be defined by a return to the violence and disorder that marked Russia’s turbulent 1990s.