Russian President Vladimir Putin’s influence in Africa appears to be diminishing as the third Russia-Africa summit convenes in Moscow with significantly fewer leaders attending than at the inaugural meeting in 2019. While the Kremlin anticipates the presence of 22 African heads of state, this marks a notable decline from the 43 leaders who participated in Sochi seven years earlier, reflecting challenges in Moscow’s efforts to solidify its engagement on the continent amid ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Western sanctions and diplomatic isolation have compelled Moscow to deepen ties with African nations, seeking political support, resources, and military recruitment. Analysts note that the summit’s agenda largely aligns with Russia’s strategic priorities in the war, casting a complex shadow over the continent’s involvement. A pressing issue is the recruitment of nearly 3,000 young Africans to fight in Ukraine, many of whom reportedly were misled into believing they were securing employment or scholarships in Russia.

Kenya’s foreign minister, Musalia Mudavadi, has condemned the recruiting as “unacceptable and clandestine” and raised concerns directly in Moscow earlier this year. The Kenyan government estimates about 1,000 of its citizens have been recruited, alongside hundreds from Ghana, Botswana, South Africa, Zimbabwe, and other nations. Ukrainian officials report that around 500 of these recruits have died in combat, with the actual number potentially higher. Social media is replete with videos of African prisoners of war calling on their governments for assistance, yet Russia has not facilitated any prisoner exchanges involving Africans.

Despite international criticism, recruitment efforts have reportedly intensified. Ukrainian intelligence sources indicate an increase in enlistment activities in Burundi and Zimbabwe, with new targets including Sierra Leone and other vulnerable states. Ahead of the summit, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited Ethiopia to discuss Moscow’s possible role in building a nuclear power plant. At the same time, Ethiopian nationals fighting for Russia have been publicly identified by Ukrainian military intelligence, which claims the true numbers are significantly higher.

Adding to concerns, Ukrainian intelligence recently confirmed the death of a Botswanan citizen, Pako Namogang, who was recruited through social media and allegedly facilitated travel arrangements in South Africa by Russian operatives. Such activities, according to Kyiv, constitute criminal acts under South African law.

Russia’s security footprint in Africa has centered on the deployment of mercenaries, notably through Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group, which operated in multiple African countries since 2018, securing mining concessions and supporting governments amid instability. Following Prigozhin’s death in 2023, Moscow absorbed the mercenary force into official military intelligence structures as the Africa Corps. Economically, however, Russian engagement remains muted. Trade between Russia and Africa has plateaued at $27 billion, falling short of Putin’s $40 billion goal and considerably less than China’s or the European Union’s commercial relationships with the continent. Russian arms exports to Africa have also dropped sharply, constrained by stockpile depletion linked to the Ukraine conflict.

Observers emphasize that the reduced turnout at this year’s summit should not be interpreted as outright rejection of Russia by African leaders. Rather, it reflects a strategic stance of diversified non-alignment, whereby nations maintain relationships with multiple powers, including China, Europe, and the United States, to maximize their own benefit. For Putin, the symbolic value lies in staging the summit and showcasing continued partnerships despite Russia’s strained international standing, even if attendance numbers have declined.

As the summit concludes, observers suggest Moscow may view the smaller gathering as a relative success, recognizing that the “family photograph” of allies could have been less favorable under the current geopolitical circumstances.