Quad leaders find a Manila envelope

By the Editorial Team · Thursday, October 22, 2026

The Quad leaders from the United States, Australia, Japan, and India will hold their first summit in over two years in Manila next month to address China’s expanding influence in the Indo-Pacific. This meeting is significant as it signals a renewed regional security focus ahead of a major U.S.-China summit, with expectations for concrete actions to emerge despite existing member tensions.

Quad leaders are set to convene in Manila next month for their first summit in over two years, meeting on the sidelines of the ASEAN and East Asia summits from November 16 to 18. The gathering will include the United States, Australia, Japan, and India, and is expected to focus primarily on challenges posed by China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region.

The meeting comes ahead of a scheduled third summit this year between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Shenzhen, China. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed the Quad talks will proceed as planned and indicated that concrete actions, rather than mere discussions, are anticipated. Quad foreign ministers are scheduled to finalize the summit agenda later this month during the G20 meeting in Atlanta.

The Quad security grouping, originally revived during Trump’s first term after a decade-long pause, has faced uncertainty regarding its cohesion due to differing national interests among its members. While all four countries share a common concern about China’s regional behavior, tensions persist on other issues such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, trade tariffs, and bilateral frictions. Last year, a planned Quad leaders meeting in New Delhi was postponed amid disputes over oil sanctions, visa restrictions, and diplomatic credit for a ceasefire between India and Pakistan.

Analysts have offered mixed assessments of the upcoming summit. Some welcomed the gathering as a sign of renewed commitment to regional security cooperation, while others expressed skepticism about the meeting’s potential for producing substantial outcomes, especially given Washington's possible reluctance to escalate tensions ahead of Trump’s engagement with Beijing.

In parallel with geopolitical developments, domestic economic policy debates continue to unfold in Australia. Following recent hawkish comments from senior Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) officials, market expectations for interest rate increases have risen. Andrew Boak, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, has forecast a likely fifth rate hike this year, potentially pushing rates to their highest level since 2008.

Betashares chief economist David Bassanese noted that the RBA is signaling a greater willingness to accept the risk of recession to bring inflation back within target ranges after it remained above the desired band for an extended period. RBA Deputy Governor Michele Bullock highlighted ongoing economic challenges, pointing to persistent inflation driven by factors such as rising energy prices, technological investment booms, and solid domestic demand despite a recent uptick in the unemployment rate to 4.7 percent in September.

Market pricing has adjusted accordingly, with expectations for a rate hike at the November policy meeting increasing substantially. However, economists remain divided on the outlook. While some, including those at ANZ and Westpac, anticipate further tightening, Commonwealth Bank’s chief economist Luke Yeaman cautioned that additional hikes risk pushing the Australian economy too far into downturn territory.

These overlapping diplomatic and economic developments underscore a period of strategic recalibration for Australia and its key partners as they navigate complex regional security issues and domestic economic pressures.

This article was reported by synthesizing coverage from multiple independent news outlets to present a balanced, unbiased account. Read about our editorial standards. Spotted an error? Let us know.