Quebec is poised to elect a Parti Québécois (PQ) government on Monday, marking the return of a separatist party to power after more than a decade. Despite polling below 30 percent in popular support, the PQ is expected to secure a majority of the 127 seats in the province’s National Assembly due to a fragmented opposition and strong backing among francophone voters. The party’s leader, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, has pledged to hold a referendum on Quebec independence during his first mandate, though he indicated it would not take place before the conclusion of Donald Trump’s presidency in 2029.
The election campaign was marked by a general desire for change but lacked enthusiastic support for any party. The governing Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), led since April by Christine Fréchette, has faltered significantly and risks losing all or most of its seats. Initially gaining momentum amid Canada-U.S. trade tensions in late August, the CAQ’s prospects weakened following several debate performances and internal controversies. A late-campaign incident involving attempts by CAQ insiders to create the impression of U.S. election interference in favor of the PQ backfired and damaged the party’s credibility. Ms. Fréchette’s leadership was further undermined by perceptions that she had little influence over federal tariff responses, which negatively affected Quebec businesses.
The Quebec Liberal Party (QLP), under the relatively unknown Charles Milliard, maintained its position as the most prominent federalist alternative and is expected to form the Official Opposition. The Liberals benefitted from strong support in non-francophone regions, and Mr. Milliard’s clearer federalist message may attract some francophone voters wary of another referendum. Nonetheless, his party faces challenges securing key ridings targeted by the PQ.
The Quebec Conservative Party (QCP), led by Éric Duhaime, appears poised to become a significant political force for the first time in recent history. With a platform advocating tax cuts, government spending restraint, and expanded private healthcare access, the party is expected to capture multiple seats, particularly in Quebec City and the Beauce region, potentially winning official party status in the legislature. However, the party’s candidate roster includes figures with controversial views, which could pose difficulties for Mr. Duhaime managing his caucus.
Québec solidaire (QS), a left-wing party focusing on progressive policies such as public ownership and higher taxes on the wealthy, remained on the margins despite a lively campaign led by co-spokesperson Ruba Ghazal. QS concentrated on housing and affordability issues while avoiding divisive topics. The party is likely to retain only its current seats in urban centers Montreal and Quebec City.
Throughout the campaign, Quebec voters demonstrated concern over issues such as the cost of living, homelessness, infrastructure decay, immigration levels, and healthcare wait times. Yet large-scale policy innovation was scarce, constrained by the need to balance the provincial budget by the decade’s end. Many parties proposed cuts to immigration and the public sector workforce, reflecting widespread caution about government expansion.
Analysts noted the campaign lacked excitement, describing it as largely focused on maintaining the status quo amid voter uncertainty. With the PQ’s anticipated return to power emphasizing sovereignty and federal-provincial tensions, Quebec’s federalists face the challenge of rallying support to counter a probable referendum push in the coming years.