Voters in Quebec headed to the polls Monday in a provincial election that is expected to bring the separatist Parti Québécois (PQ) back into power for the first time in over a decade. If current polls are accurate, the PQ will form the government of the province, home to roughly nine million people, and is likely to push forward with plans for a new referendum on independence from Canada within the next two years.

The party’s resurgence is largely credited to its leader, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, a 49-year-old lawyer educated at Oxford. Known for his social media presence and generational appeal, St-Pierre Plamondon has positioned himself as a counterpoint to outgoing Premier François Legault. Although the PQ is traditionally associated with social democratic values, the party’s recent campaign has focused heavily on right-leaning identity and immigration issues.

St-Pierre Plamondon has blamed immigration for pressures on Quebec’s education system, higher crime rates, and soaring housing costs. His platform includes promises to reduce immigration levels and ban conspicuous religious symbols among teachers and students. He has criticized the leftist Quebec Solidaire party for what he calls a "woke" agenda and echoed rhetoric common among more hardline commentators. This shift in tone reflects broader changes in public attitudes, with some analysts noting that many Quebecers remain left-leaning economically but have hardened views on social and identity issues.

However, St-Pierre Plamondon’s pledge to hold a referendum on Quebec sovereignty during the first mandate remains controversial. Polls consistently show that a significant majority of Quebec voters do not support a new referendum in the near future, particularly amid ongoing economic tensions, including a trade dispute between Canada and the United States. The province notably favored Liberal leader Mark Carney in last year’s federal election, valuing his assertive stance against the Trump administration — a factor that has complicated the PQ’s push for independence.

Early in the campaign, St-Pierre Plamondon mitigated referendum concerns by stating he would avoid holding one while Donald Trump remained in office, allowing him to concentrate on immigration-related issues. The PQ has also benefited from a fragmented right-leaning nationalist vote, with rivals like the Parti Conservateur du Québec dividing opposition away from the party’s main competitor, especially in regions outside Montreal.

While polls suggest the PQ is likely to lead the next government, the party’s support hovers near 30%, casting doubt on whether it will secure a majority. If elected, St-Pierre Plamondon has indicated plans to challenge federal authority, including proposals to defund the office of Quebec’s lieutenant-governor and to sever the province’s ties with the British monarchy, which separatists view as a symbol of oppression against Quebec’s French-speaking population.

St-Pierre Plamondon has also criticized Prime Minister Carney’s intention to increase immigration rates, calling it an “abuse of power” that could further strain French-language services. Despite the leader’s youthful image, his focus on monarchy abolition and confrontation with Ottawa echoes strategies from the PQ’s earlier era in the 1970s.

The upcoming government, under St-Pierre Plamondon, is expected to navigate a complex political landscape where support for Quebec sovereignty is divided, and relations with the federal government remain a sensitive and potentially volatile issue. Meanwhile, Carney retains substantial popularity in the province, which may temper some of the separatist momentum if economic and geopolitical uncertainties continue.