Andy Burnham, the Labour leader and mayor of Greater Manchester, has signaled his intention to pursue a referendum on the United Kingdom’s membership in the European Union, aiming to potentially reverse the outcome of the 2016 Brexit vote. This move echoes the approach taken by former Prime Minister Harold Wilson, who in 1975 successfully held a referendum endorsing continued membership in the then Common Market. However, significant differences distinguish the current political landscape from that of nearly five decades ago.

Wilson’s 1975 referendum asked voters to confirm the UK’s membership in a trading bloc it had already joined in 1973 without a public vote. By contrast, a future referendum proposed by Burnham would confront voters with the prospect of rejoining the EU after the country’s formal exit in 2020. This scenario presents new challenges, as public opinion remains divided and the political and economic context has evolved considerably since the earlier plebiscite.

Polling data suggests a growing portion of the British public views Brexit as an error, which supporters of a “rejoin” vote believe strengthens their case. Yet, others caution that recognizing a previous decision as mistaken does not necessarily translate into a commitment to revisit or undo that decision, especially considering the financial and political costs involved.

A key complication in any reconsideration of membership lies in the terms of reentry. The EU of today differs substantially from the Common Market of the 1970s, particularly in matters such as the single currency. Burnham and the Labour Party would need to negotiate terms that address concerns over adopting the euro—a sensitive topic that could dominate the referendum debate. While some member states retain opt-outs from the eurozone, it remains uncertain if assurances against future currency integration would satisfy the electorate or quell opposition effectively.

Negotiations with the EU on rejoining terms are expected to be arduous, with the UK potentially facing less accommodating governments than those led by pro-European leaders such as Emmanuel Macron of France and Angela Merkel of Germany in previous years. Shifts in the political leadership of key member states may further complicate the dialogue, reducing the likelihood of swift or favorable concessions.

Labour’s internal dynamics differ markedly from the past. Whereas the referendums in 1975 and 2016 were called largely to resolve divisions within incumbent governments, the current Labour Party is broadly united in its pro-European stance. Nonetheless, running on a platform that includes restoring free movement and renewing tariff arrangements with the EU could provoke strong opposition from conservative and right-wing factions. This might consolidate support for Brexit among voters opposed to reversing the 2016 decision.

Political figures have expressed skepticism about the timing and prudence of a renewed referendum. Key considerations include the state of public finances and the broader economic climate, which might constrain the government’s ability to manage the potential disruption of rejoining. Moreover, the political risks associated with reigniting a contentious debate so soon after the initial departure remain significant.

While advocates argue that rejoining the European Union offers clear economic and strategic benefits, the political and electoral complexities surrounding such a move are formidable. Any effort to hold a new referendum on EU membership would therefore require careful navigation of public opinion, party unity, and international negotiations, all within a highly polarized environment.