Israel is headed to a closely contested parliamentary election on October 27, with opposition parties challenging the far-right government led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The vote comes amid continuing violence in Gaza and Lebanon, increased violence by settlers in the occupied West Bank, and a decline in Israel’s international standing.

Netanyahu’s government has faced criticism over its handling of military operations following Hamas’s attack on October 7, 2023, as well as its approach to Iran and ongoing tensions with Palestinian groups. His allies, however, maintain a hardline stance on security.

The opposition coalition, spearheaded by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot and comprising centrist and right-wing figures such as Naftali Bennett, Yair Lapid, and Avigdor Lieberman, has promised to repair Israel’s diplomatic relations and recalibrate domestic policies if it takes power. Yet foreign analysts and former officials caution that expectations for radical change should be tempered.

Elisa Ewers, a former senior U.S. official now with the Council on Foreign Relations, noted that any new government is unlikely to overhaul Israel’s security policies immediately but may adjust tone and make incremental shifts. A former UK Labour minister echoed skepticism, suggesting that the societal trauma and hardline security focus that have emerged since 2023 will endure regardless of who forms the next government.

Polls indicate a tight race, with the opposition holding a narrow lead but lacking a strong majority, leaving coalition formation uncertain. Opposition leaders have emphasized continuity in confronting militant groups, with some candidates adopting stances as tough or tougher than Netanyahu’s on Iran and regional security. Bennett, for example, has pledged retaliatory strikes against Iran-linked attacks and declared Qatar an enemy state.

Within Israel, the opposition’s approach may involve reversing some policies associated with ultranationalist ministers such as Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, particularly regarding settlement activity and settler violence in the West Bank. Eisenkot has condemned extremist settler attacks on Palestinians as a deliberate and dangerous government policy and stated intentions to curtail illegal outposts and dismantle a few settlements near Palestinian villages.

Efforts to improve relations with the Palestinian Authority (PA) are expected, including potentially resuming the transfer of withheld tax revenues. However, divergent views persist within the opposition on broader Palestinian issues. While figures like Lieberman have called for dismantling the PA and nullifying the Oslo Accords, others acknowledge no immediate prospect for a Palestinian state. Eisenkot has avoided direct reference to a Palestinian state but supports some form of separation between Israeli and Palestinian populations.

Israeli military presence in Gaza and Lebanon is unlikely to shift significantly unless militant groups like Hamas and Hezbollah disarm. Still, some opposition members may pursue greater involvement in U.S.-led diplomatic initiatives. Maintaining strong ties with the United States, including the Trump administration, is considered a priority for any incoming government.

Some activists and analysts caution that addressing settler extremism and overturning far-right policies could be challenging for an opposition-led government, which may be reluctant to directly confront settler groups. Nonetheless, there is consensus across the political spectrum against the establishment of a Palestinian state in the near term.

As the election approaches, opposition leaders stress the need for pragmatic diplomacy alongside military measures to achieve sustainable security and strategic gains. They argue that reversing international damage, improving alliances, and implementing restrained policies will require careful balancing amid complex domestic and regional dynamics. Observers note that while changes are possible, any new government must manage expectations given Israel’s internal political constraints and ongoing security concerns.