Broken Arrow, Okla.—Ranchers in deeply Republican regions of the Midwest and Great Plains are expressing growing dissatisfaction with policies implemented during the Trump administration, leading to shifting political dynamics that are making traditionally secure GOP areas more competitive in upcoming elections.

Scott Belden, a cattle rancher based near Broken Arrow, has faced mounting challenges over the past year. After enjoying a brief period of profitability in May and June, Belden has seen rising costs, particularly for diesel fuel, which recently approached $6 a gallon. Compounding his difficulties, a series of tariff reductions on beef imports enacted by former President Donald Trump have depressed cattle market prices. Initially announced in February for Argentina and extended in August to include Brazil and Paraguay, these tariff cuts were intended to lower meat costs for consumers but have negatively impacted domestic producers like Belden, who estimates losses of $200 to $250 per calf.

The decision to ease tariffs on South American beef imports has drawn strong criticism from ranching groups, including the Oklahoma Cattlemen’s Association, which called the policy “extremely bad” at a time when Oklahoma’s cattle producers are already grappling with drought and rising operational expenses. Oklahoma ranks as the nation’s second-largest beef producer after Texas, making the state particularly sensitive to shifts in the cattle market.

These agricultural tensions have contributed to an increasingly volatile political landscape in states that have been Republican strongholds for years. Oklahoma’s gubernatorial race, traditionally viewed as safely in GOP hands, has become unexpectedly competitive. Democrat Cyndi Munson, the state House minority leader, has gained momentum against Republican Mike Mazzei, a former state senator with Trump’s endorsement. The Cook Political Report recently shifted its rating for the race from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican,” reflecting broader gains for Democrats in neighboring Kansas and Nebraska.

Munson’s campaign has attracted notable national support, including a $500,000 contribution from the Democratic Governors Association, while Republicans have responded with a $3 million boost from their national association. Trump campaigned for Mazzei in early October, underscoring the high stakes of the contest.

For some Oklahoma farmers and ranchers, frustration with Trump-era policies is prompting reconsideration of party loyalty. Chastin Johnson-Leggett, a central Oklahoma farmer and former Republican supporter, cited the impact of tariffs on feed prices and expressed disenchantment with the party’s direction. He joined Munson in local events as an example of shifting voter attitudes.

Mazzei, however, maintains a strong alliance with Trump but acknowledges he does not support every policy. He emphasized his commitment to Oklahoma’s agricultural community, affirming his intention to stand with local farmers and ranchers.

The Trump administration attempted to offset some economic pressures through measures such as expanding access to tax-free red-dyed diesel and providing $8 billion in one-time harvest payments. Yet many producers view these efforts as insufficient to counterbalance the negative effects of trade policies, labor enforcement, and increased fuel costs.

Munson has proposed creating a dedicated secretary of agriculture and appointing a forestry director to address issues such as economic policy and wildfire prevention, aiming to position herself as an advocate for rural constituencies. Still, her campaign has offered limited detail on specific remedies for ranchers impacted by prior federal actions.

Despite the underlying economic grievances, some voters like Belden remain wary about shifting party allegiances based on social issues. Belden emphasized his core values, including his Christian faith, and expressed opposition to Munson’s positions on topics such as transgender healthcare for minors. He plans to support Mazzei in the upcoming election, illustrating the complex interplay between economic concerns and cultural issues in shaping voter behavior.

Political analysts note that while Democratic gains in agriculture-heavy states reflect a changing political climate, historic voting patterns and deeply entrenched party loyalties continue to pose significant challenges to candidates like Munson seeking to flip Republican strongholds.