U.S. President Donald Trump is adopting a more restrained approach ahead of his scheduled meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping this week, reflecting China's growing leverage in global supply chains for critical minerals, according to experts on China. Unlike prior summits marked by aggressive trade threats, the Trump administration has refrained from proposing steep tariffs on Chinese imports or imposing new export controls on U.S. technology.

This strategic shift is largely attributed to China’s dominance over rare earth minerals, essential components for high-tech industries including automotive manufacturing, semiconductors, and defense. China holds a commanding position in the rare earth market, accounting for up to 70 percent of global mining, 85 percent of refining capacity, and approximately 90 percent of metal alloy and magnet production, according to consultancy AlixPartners.

In 2019, China’s decision to curb rare earth exports in response to earlier U.S. tariffs rattled global markets and starkly demonstrated Beijing’s leverage. That episode, experts say, now limits Washington’s ability to use trade measures as blunt instruments against China without risking significant disruption to domestic supply chains. This dynamic has influenced the U.S. stance in negotiations, prompting a more cautious posture ahead of Thursday’s meeting at the White House, where President Trump and President Xi are expected to discuss bilateral relations followed by a state dinner with key officials and business leaders.

Emily Kilcrease, a former trade official and current fellow at the Center for a New American Security, noted that the Trump administration recognizes it cannot fully rely on coercive tactics due to these supply vulnerabilities. “The U.S. and the Trump administration are just fundamentally in a different position with China where they can’t use that overly coercive, over-reaching approach,” Kilcrease said, referencing last summer’s rare earth export restrictions.

While the administration has implemented some measures targeting China over recent months, analysts observed these actions have been more measured compared to earlier, more confrontational policies. Many of these were announced well ahead of the summit, in part to avoid escalating tensions before high-level talks.

Official responses from the White House, Commerce Department, the United States Trade Representative, and the Chinese Embassy in Washington were not immediately available for comment. The ongoing negotiations underscore the complex interdependence between the two economies, particularly in sectors critical to national security and technological advancement.