Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer faces a critical decision regarding the long-delayed defence investment plan (Dip), which is intended to set the United Kingdom’s defence spending framework for the next four years. This move comes amid growing pressure as his political future appears increasingly uncertain, with his tenure expected to end within weeks or potentially months if a leadership challenge from Labour's frontrunner, Andy Burnham, gains traction.
Starmer’s administration has garnered praise for its steadfast support of Ukraine amid the ongoing conflict with Russia, providing military aid and expertise to Kyiv. However, the UK’s own defence capabilities have seen less robust backing. The armed forces require an estimated £28 billion simply to continue existing commitments, excluding new technological developments. Under pressure from Chancellor Rachel Reeves, the current government has proposed funding significantly below this figure—less than half—prompting the resignation of Defence Secretary John Healey earlier this month in protest.
The Dip, repeatedly delayed due to internal disputes between the Ministry of Defence, the Treasury, and Downing Street, is now poised for release. Starmer is eager to finalize the plan ahead of his final scheduled appearance as prime minister at the NATO summit in Ankara on July 7. The plan aims to set defence expenditure at approximately 2.68 percent of GDP by 2030, falling short of the widely regarded minimum threshold of 3 percent.
Critics within and outside the government warn that publishing the current draft could undermine both national security and Starmer’s credibility. Healey and former armed forces minister Al Carns have expressed strong reservations about the funding levels and the overall viability of the plan. Moreover, senior figures close to incoming Labour leader Andy Burnham have indicated that such a significant policy decision should be deferred to the new leadership, consistent with the convention that outgoing prime ministers avoid binding their successors.
Burnham, a former mayor of Greater Manchester, is seen as a somewhat unknown figure in defence circles but is expected to assess threat perceptions and funding requirements promptly. Observers note that as an advocate for regional industrial revitalization, Burnham would likely support major defence projects such as the Tempest sixth-generation fighter jet and the Aukus attack submarine program, both critical to sustaining thousands of jobs in the UK’s northwest.
Former cabinet secretary Lord Case has remarked that the incoming leader could revise or even scrap the existing Dip entirely. Sources suggest that Starmer and Burnham would benefit from informal coordination on the plan’s content and timing to mitigate disruption to the defence sector, which has been operating under significant uncertainty regarding future contracts.
As the July 7 NATO summit approaches, the decision looms: Sir Keir Starmer must either publish a contested defence plan and risk further damaging his standing or accept that the next Labour leader should shape the United Kingdom’s defence trajectory. The handling of the Dip may ultimately serve as a final test of Starmer’s leadership on national security as his premiership draws to a close.