Fears of a return to civil war in Ethiopia have intensified following a recent offensive by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the formation of a new rebel coalition seeking to overthrow the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The renewed violence comes after a conflict from 2020 to 2022 between the Ethiopian army and the TPLF that resulted in approximately 600,000 deaths.
On Sunday, seven armed groups from across Ethiopia, including the TPLF, announced the creation of the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, declaring their intent to depose the Addis Ababa government. Subsequently, on Wednesday, the TPLF seized control of three airports in the Tigray region from federal police forces, prompting Ethiopian Airlines to suspend flights to the area due to security concerns. Fighting has also spread to the neighbouring Afar and Amhara regions, with reports of heavy artillery attacks near the town of Yallo, close to the Tigray border.
TPLF Vice-President Amanuel Assefa described the situation as “full-blown war,” confirming that Tigrayan forces are engaging alongside local armed groups in both Afar and Amhara. The group reportedly took control of towns including Abala on the Tigray-Afar border and several other locations in Afar, while clashes continue near Weldiya in Amhara, a strategic route toward Addis Ababa.
The Ethiopian federal army reported killing 272 TPLF fighters during the multi-front attacks, although these figures have not been independently verified. The government also stated it had wounded or captured over 500 combatants in response to the offensive. Casualty figures for federal forces and civilians have not been disclosed.
Analysts suggest that the TPLF may receive support from Eritrea, a historical adversary of Ethiopia. Eritrea is reportedly concerned about potential Ethiopian plans to use its territory for Red Sea access, though TPLF officials denied knowledge of any Eritrean military involvement or plans. Abiy Ahmed’s spokesperson accused the rebel alliance of receiving Eritrean financial backing, a claim Eritrea has repeatedly denied.
At the United Nations General Assembly, Ethiopian President Taye Atske-Selassie Amde condemned “forces of destruction and mayhem” and interference by external actors in Ethiopia’s affairs. He emphasized the government's efforts to exercise restraint and foster regional cooperation.
The renewed hostilities challenge the Pretoria Agreement of 2022, which had brought an uneasy calm following the civil war. Renewed clashes since late last year and recent developments threaten to destabilize not only Ethiopia but also the wider Horn of Africa, a region already affected by conflict in Sudan and tensions along the Red Sea.
The African Union chair, Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, called for “utmost restraint” among the parties and urged a return to direct negotiations. Similarly, a spokesperson for the European Union urged an immediate de-escalation and reaffirmation of the Pretoria agreement, highlighting the urgency of preventing further conflict escalation.