Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon has declined to its lowest level since measurements began in 1988, according to new data from Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research. The satellite-based Prodes system recorded a 41.8% reduction in forest loss over the past year, totaling 3,335 square kilometers, marking a significant decrease amid ongoing political uncertainty surrounding the country’s upcoming presidential runoff election on October 25.
Since the end of 2022, prior to the current administration of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, deforestation in the Amazon has fallen by more than 70%, driven largely by strengthened enforcement actions and increased funding for environmental agencies. The states contributing the most to deforestation in 2026 were Pará, Mato Grosso, and Amazonas, accounting for approximately 75% of forest loss nationwide, though even these regions showed declines exceeding 45%. Roraima was the only state to see a marginal increase in deforestation, rising 0.4%, a region noted as a stronghold for the opposition.
Adjacent to the Amazon, the Cerrado biome, a savannah ecosystem long subjected to extensive agricultural clearing, also registered historic lows in annual forest clearance, with 5,516 square kilometers lost—the lowest since 2001. Over the last four years, deforestation in the Cerrado has dropped by nearly half, reflecting a broader trend of reduced environmental degradation across Brazil’s critical landscapes.
These conservation gains stand in stark contrast to the period between 2019 and 2023, when deforestation surged by nearly 60% under former President Jair Bolsonaro. His administration rolled back protections for the Amazon, curtailed enforcement against illegal logging and mining, and offered verbal encouragement to actors engaged in environmental destruction. Bolsonaro’s policies generated international criticism amid widespread concern over the global impact of increased Amazon deforestation.
The presidential runoff pits Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva against Flávio Bolsonaro, son of the former president. Lula has been credited with restoring environmental protections and implementing social programs that address poverty and food insecurity. However, he placed second in the first round of voting, with the contest poised to decide Brazil’s environmental trajectory. Flávio Bolsonaro has aligned with interests favoring resource exploitation, maintaining close ties with landowners and extractive industries. Electoral maps reveal a geographic split in support: Lula’s backing is strongest in urban centers and regions where forest cover remains relatively intact, while Bolsonaro’s support concentrates in areas with significant deforestation and agricultural development.
The candidates also differ in their international relations stance. Lula has expressed opposition to perceived attempts by the United States under former President Donald Trump to exert control over Brazilian resources. Conversely, Bolsonaro’s family maintains close links with the U.S., including calls for tariffs on Brazilian goods and public demonstrations of allegiance.
Environmental advocates warn that the election outcome will critically influence the future of the Amazon. Marcio Astrini, executive secretary of the Climate Observatory, emphasized that the country faces a decisive choice between continuing the recent reduction in deforestation or risking renewed forest loss.
The upcoming runoff election thus holds global implications, potentially shaping conservation efforts in one of the world’s most vital ecosystems.