More than 70,000 prisoners have been released early in England and Wales since September 2024 under a Labour government scheme aimed at addressing prison overcrowding, according to recent Ministry of Justice (MoJ) data. The emergency measures, introduced as part of efforts to manage an expanding prison population, reduced the proportion of sentences offenders must serve from 50 percent to 40 percent under the scheme known as SDS40.

Between January and March 2026, 12,977 inmates were released early, while during the same period, 13,193 were recalled to prison after breaching licence conditions. This marks the first time that the number of recalls has exceeded releases in a quarter and signals a 28 percent rise in prison recalls compared to the previous year, with 51,419 inmates returned in the 12 months to March. Most recall cases involved breaches of licence requirements such as failing to maintain contact with probation services, rather than new criminal offences.

The rise in recalls coincides with a record-high reoffending rate of 31.9 percent reported for all adult offenders, including those not previously incarcerated. Nearly 25,000 offenders committed more than 127,000 new offences between July 2024 and early 2026, the highest rate since recording began in 2013, reflecting growing concerns about public safety under the early release system. The MoJ acknowledged that the early release scheme likely contributed to the increase in recalls, though changes to recall procedures—such as fixed 56-day recall periods for many offenders—also play a role.

Labour’s scaled-back early release plans aim to replace SDS40 with a new scheme beginning in September 2026, which would allow most offenders, including those convicted of sexual and serious violent crimes, to be freed after serving one-third of their sentence, or half for the most serious offences. However, this plan faced considerable criticism and was temporarily paused following public outcry. Among the detractors was Lissie Harper, widow of police constable Andrew Harper, who was killed during a 2019 incident involving offenders now eligible for early release. Opposition figures, including the Conservative shadow justice secretary Nick Timothy and party leader Kemi Badenoch, have urged Labour to abandon the proposals and introduce emergency legislation to prevent further releases under the new scheme.

Critics of the early release strategy argue that prematurely releasing violent and sexual offenders compromises public safety and justice for victims, while Labour and justice officials maintain that the measures were necessary to avert a collapse of the prison system. The Ministry of Justice emphasizes that protecting the public remains the government’s priority and highlights the largest prison building programme in over a century, with 3,200 new places already delivered to alleviate overcrowding.

Experts from criminal justice charities note the complexity of the issue, pointing out that many recalls stem from non-criminal breaches linked to social factors such as homelessness, addiction, and mental health challenges. Prison Advice chief executive Andy Keen-Downs cautions that sending as many people back to prison as are released will not solve the population crisis, while Nacro’s Enver Solomon stresses the need for support systems addressing the underlying causes of licence breaches.

In parallel, incidents related to prison security remain a concern, with 14 escapes reported in 2025-26—the highest number since 2019-20—and several prisoners still at large after a month. Drone-related contraband incidents in prisons have decreased slightly from previous peaks, and errors in prisoner release have also fallen compared to the previous year.

The government continues to navigate the challenge of balancing public safety, prisoners’ rights, and systemic pressures amid scrutiny from political opponents and advocacy groups over the effectiveness and consequences of its early release policies.