Reoffending rates have reached a record high following the early release of more than 70,000 offenders under a government scheme aimed at easing prison overcrowding. According to Ministry of Justice (MoJ) data, 31.9 percent of adult offenders released from July to September 2024 committed further offences, up from 29.2 percent the previous year. This increase reflects nearly 25,000 individuals responsible for over 127,000 additional crimes, including serious cases such as a knife offender charged with murder and a man who sexually assaulted a woman shortly after his release.
The early release initiative, introduced in September 2024 under Labour justice secretary Shabana Mahmood, allowed prisoners in England and Wales to be freed after serving 40 percent of their sentence instead of the standard halfway point. The scheme was implemented amid concerns that prisons were nearing capacity, with fewer than 100 spaces remaining. Despite these measures, the MoJ projects that facilities will reach full capacity by November 2026 unless plans proceed to release an additional 6,000 prisoners, including individuals convicted of serious offences such as murder, rape, and violent assault.
In response, the government has proposed a new “earned progression” system, which would reduce the time served for lower-level offenders to as little as one-third of their sentence while returning serious offenders to an earlier halfway release point—provided they maintain good behaviour in custody.
The escalating crisis is further highlighted by rising numbers of offenders recalled to prison for breaking licence conditions. Between January and March 2026, 13,193 offenders were recalled, surpassing the 12,977 individuals released in the same period. This trend marks the first time recalls have outnumbered releases, complicating efforts to alleviate overcrowding.
The issue has prompted political pushback. Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham has suspended the proposed September early release scheme following public concern, intensified by revelations that two individuals convicted of manslaughter in the killing of Pc Andrew Harper are eligible for release after serving just half their sentences rather than two-thirds. In response, the Prime Minister has ordered a comprehensive review to assess which prisoners can be safely released early and to determine additional safeguards for victims. No prisoners will be released under the new scheme until the review is completed.
Reoffending rates have steadily increased since the pre-COVID period, when about 25 percent of offenders reoffended. The 31.9 percent figure for the mid-2024 cohort also mirrors a near doubling in the number of reoffences, from under 70,000 to more than 127,000. Annual recalls surged 73 percent in 2025 to 51,419, the highest on record and nearly twice the figure from 2023.
Common reasons for recall include violations of licence conditions such as failure to maintain contact with probation services or committing new offences. Among notable recent cases is former actor Jason Hoganson, who was convicted of attacking his former partner just one day after his early release.
An MoJ spokesperson emphasized ongoing efforts to expand capacity and reform probation, noting delivery of 3,200 new prison places as part of the largest construction programme in over a century. The ministry is also investing £700 million in probation services and victim support, aiming to balance public safety with effective management of prisoner populations.