Israel’s Arab political parties are poised to achieve their strongest electoral performance in decades following a record turnout among Arab voters in the country’s parliamentary elections held on Tuesday. This surge could significantly reshape the political landscape, intensifying debate over the role of Arab parties in government formation.
The Arab minority, which constitutes about 20 percent of Israel’s population, appears to be on track to secure up to 19 seats in the 120-member Knesset, nearly doubling their current representation of 10 seats. The gains are concentrated among the two leading Arab blocs, Raam and the Joint List alliance, whose enhanced presence may position them as key players in the negotiations to form the next government.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, campaigning for re-election, repeatedly cautioned his supporters about Arab voter influence, asserting that they sought to “steal the election.” He used this rhetoric to mobilize his right-wing base amid concerns about national security and loyalty, especially in the aftermath of the Oct. 7 Hamas attack—the deadliest day in Israeli history—which escalated the ongoing conflict in Gaza. However, election officials reported no evidence of widespread voting irregularities tied to Arab constituencies.
Netanyahu’s main challenger, Gadi Eisenkot, who has positioned himself as a centrist alternative critical of Netanyahu’s leadership style and policies, has not committed to working with Arab parties to form a coalition. Eisenkot stated that none of the Arab factions currently meet the conditions he would require for alliance, signaling reluctance among most Jewish-led parties to form coalitions dependent on Arab support—an issue that has long been a contentious element in Israeli politics.
The election outcome has left both leading camps short of the 61 seats needed for a majority, raising the prospect that Arab party backing could be essential to break the political deadlock. However, historical mistrust and ideological divides pose significant obstacles. Many Jewish voters oppose coalitions that rely on Arab parties, citing concerns about national identity and security, while some Arab parties maintain positions that challenge the legitimacy of Israel as a Jewish state.
Following the results, President Isaac Herzog is expected to choose a candidate to attempt to form a government. That individual will have 28 days, with a possible 14-day extension, to negotiate coalition agreements. If unsuccessful, the president may task others, and if all fail, new elections could be called. Herzog has expressed a desire to avoid repeat elections, which have characterized the country’s political scene in recent years.
Analysts suggest that a prolonged period of negotiation and political uncertainty is likely, with scenarios ranging from a national unity government to uneasy alliances involving defectors or minor factions. For Netanyahu, the current stalemate could be advantageous, allowing him to remain caretaker prime minister longer.
As political leaders and parties grapple with the election results, many Israelis face the prospect of renewed political paralysis, a situation last experienced between 2019 and 2022, when four elections were held in quick succession. While Netanyahu’s supporters may find relief in his continuing viability, opponents and those seeking decisive change confront a potentially protracted struggle to form a stable government.