Mark Carney’s tenure as Prime Minister has been marked by an unusually cooperative relationship with provincial premiers, but the upcoming Quebec election threatens to disrupt this federal-provincial harmony. The Parti Québécois (PQ), led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon (PSPP), appears poised to return to power for the first time in over a decade. While it remains uncertain whether the PQ will secure a majority government, most polls indicate PSPP will win regardless, potentially ending a period of relative consensus.

The PQ’s return raises questions not only about the prospect of a future referendum on Quebec sovereignty but also about the broader dynamics of federal-provincial collaboration. If the PQ forms a minority government, PSPP’s ability to initiate a referendum may be limited. Nonetheless, the party’s priorities differ markedly from those of previous provincial administrations, and such differences could affect national policy areas including trade, internal market integration, and major infrastructure projects.

PSPP has sharply criticized the federal government’s approach toward the ongoing Canada-U.S. trade tensions. Following the U.S. administration under President Donald Trump’s announcement of increased tariffs in August, PSPP described Ottawa’s retaliatory tariffs as detrimental to Quebec businesses and emblematic of a government “insensitive” to Quebec’s interests. The PQ leader has opposed projects supported by the federal government, such as the Alto high-speed rail line linking Quebec City and Toronto, and has expressed reservations about a $10-billion expansion plan for the Churchill Falls hydroelectric facility, a partnership involving Ottawa, Hydro-Québec, and Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro.

This stance contrasts with the cooperative spirit fostered by Carney’s government among other provincial leaders. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe, for example, have issued cautions regarding resource-based trade leverage in the face of U.S. tariffs, yet Carney brokered agreements including a memorandum of understanding with Smith on a new west coast oil pipeline and emissions regulation. Quebec Premier Christine Fréchette, head of the Coalition Avenir Québec and a former PQ staffer, has worked closely with Carney to demonstrate federal-provincial unity, particularly as a counterweight to the PQ’s influence.

PSPP’s political approach, however, does not emphasize federal collaboration. Widely viewed as a divisive figure and polling at an historically low level of voter support near 30 percent, the PQ leader faces challenges in securing broad consensus. Public opinion in Quebec shows considerable concern over the ongoing trade disputes with the U.S. and general reluctance toward a sovereignty referendum, prompting PSPP to pledge a delay in any such vote until after Trump’s anticipated departure from office, expected sometime after January 2029.

While PSPP has endorsed some aspects of Carney’s economic agenda—particularly efforts to reduce internal trade barriers—he maintains reservations about protecting Quebec’s language and cultural identity. His primary focus remains advancing Quebec independence, including plans to replace the current intergovernmental affairs minister with a dedicated minister responsible for the independence process. According to PSPP’s timeline, this process would unfold over the next three years, requiring significant public support for separation from Canada.

Given these developments, the anticipated return of the Parti Québécois likely signals a shift away from the cooperative federalism characteristic of recent years under Carney’s leadership. Whether this will translate into concrete policy setbacks or prolonged political tensions remains to be seen, but the stage is set for a more fractious phase in federal-provincial relations.