Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party could regain momentum in national polls if he is cleared of allegations surrounding his personal finances, according to prominent pollster Prof Sir John Curtice. The party recently fell behind Labour in consecutive opinion polls for the first time in hundreds of surveys, a shift attributed in part to ongoing financial controversies.

Reform UK’s decline coincided with Labour’s rise following Andy Burnham’s appointment as party leader. Curtice noted that Reform’s support dropped by approximately three percentage points around July 6, the date Farage announced his intention to contest the Clacton by-election after stepping down as its MP. He attributed Labour’s gains to a typical “bounce” effect that often follows leadership changes, which he said was seen despite the party undergoing opposition leader Keir Starmer’s resignation announcement.

“Every mid-term change of Prime Minister besides Liz Truss has triggered a bounce,” Curtice observed, highlighting that Labour’s polling stabilized at around 25% following Burnham’s takeover, up from 19% prior to Starmer’s departure. The key factors moving forward will be whether Labour can maintain or build on these gains and whether Reform can recover from recent controversies.

Reform UK is currently under scrutiny after allegations surfaced about funding sources linked to Farage. A parliamentary standards commissioner is investigating a £5 million payment Farage received from crypto-billionaire Christopher Harborne, which Farage has said was intended to cover his personal security costs. Additionally, the Metropolitan Police are probing the party’s finances following claims that George Cottrell, a longtime friend of Farage, transferred more than £1.4 million to Farage’s mother. She subsequently made donations to Reform UK in 2024.

Reform UK maintains that all donations and financial transactions have complied with electoral rules. The outcome of these official inquiries is expected to significantly influence the party’s future in public opinion.

Recent polls reflect a close contest between the two parties: More in Common places Labour at 28% and Reform at 24%, while Survation reports Labour at 26% compared to Reform’s 24%. YouGov’s latest results indicate a tie between Labour and Reform at 24% each.

The coming weeks will likely be critical for Reform UK’s standing, dependent largely on the results of ongoing investigations and whether Farage can mitigate the impact of the financial allegations against him.