The Reform UK party's annual conference held last week at Birmingham’s National Exhibition Centre highlighted deepening internal divisions and controversy amid declining political prospects. Once seen as a rising force poised to challenge both Labour and the Conservatives, the party now faces mounting difficulties that question its readiness to govern.

Twelve months ago, Reform UK appeared on course for a breakthrough with polls placing it ahead of both Labour and the Tories, and speculation rife about a possible future government under Nigel Farage’s leadership. However, this year’s conference, convened amid heightened expectations, was overshadowed by a recent undercover investigation that led to the suspension of two senior aides, Dan Jukes and James Orr. The investigation recorded the aides discussing plans to circumvent electoral laws to secure significant foreign donations, including one reportedly amounting to £500,000. Both deny any wrongdoing, while Farage dismissed the allegations as the indiscretions of “a couple of contractors,” although many insiders describe Jukes as a close and long-standing associate of the leader.

The scandal has exacerbated existing rifts within Reform UK, particularly between traditionalist members focused on strict migration policies and culture war issues, and defectors from the Conservative Party who argue for broadening the party’s appeal to attract a wider electorate. These tensions have manifested in visible infighting, with some party officials viewing the departure of Jukes and Orr as an opportunity to reorganize Reform’s leadership and strategy. Yet, others acknowledge the damage done to the party’s credibility and cohesion.

Despite these internal struggles, the conference featured moments of enthusiasm, including speeches from prominent figures such as Lee Anderson, the party chair and former Conservative MP, and Zia Yusuf, the home affairs spokesman, who pledged an extensive deportation campaign if in government. The event also saw a surprise appearance by Jordan Bardella, French politician and potential future prime ministerial candidate, who expressed solidarity with Reform UK, an alliance that signals increasing cross-national connections on the right of the political spectrum.

However, the party’s standing with the broader electorate appears to be weakening. Recent polls suggest Reform UK has fallen behind Labour and the Conservatives, with some placing them in third place nationally. Nigel Farage remains a highly polarizing figure, enjoying strong support among his core followers but holding one of the lowest favorability ratings among British party leaders. Analysts suggest this unpopularity, combined with the ongoing financial controversies, poses serious challenges for Reform’s ambitions of forming a government.

Meanwhile, rival political figures have largely refrained from capitalizing directly on Reform’s troubled conference. The Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has chosen to focus on traditional conservative policies while distancing from Reform’s more fractious image. Labour’s Andy Burnham is adopting a conciliatory approach toward disaffected Reform voters, attempting to position himself as a sympathetic alternative to Farage’s populism.

Reform UK’s conference, intended to mark the party’s readiness to govern, instead underscored its organizational fragility and political setbacks. While the party continues to influence the national conversation, its path to power appears increasingly uncertain, with internal disputes and public controversies raising questions about its long-term viability as a credible governing option.