Reform UK Could Become Largest Party if Burnham Calls Early Election

By the Editorial Team · Sunday, September 13, 2026

Reform UK, despite recent scandals and a decline in support, could become the largest party in an early general election following a substantial £36 million donation and a tightening race with Labour and the Conservatives. This uncertain political landscape has led Prime Minister Andy Burnham to postpone calling an election, as an early poll risks benefiting Reform UK and threatening his chances of re-election.

Reform UK could emerge as the largest party in a potential early general election despite recent setbacks, according to prominent pollster Sir John Curtice. The party, led by Nigel Farage, has experienced a decline in support over the past months amid multiple scandals and an ongoing police investigation into its donations. Nevertheless, Reform UK recently announced a £36 million donation from British cryptocurrency entrepreneur Ben Delo, injecting substantial funds into its election campaign.

A YouGov poll conducted earlier this week indicates a close contest among the three main parties, with both Reform UK and Labour polling at 23 percent and the Conservatives trailing slightly behind at 20 percent. This marks a significant shift from a year ago when Reform UK maintained a nine-point lead over Labour. In recent months, Labour’s popularity has risen sharply under Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s leadership, culminating in Labour overtaking Reform UK for the first time since March 2025.

Despite Labour’s improved standing, Sir John Curtice cautioned that the numbers still do not favor Burnham calling an early election. He warned that an early poll could jeopardize the prime minister’s chances of securing a new term and might inadvertently allow Reform UK to regain momentum after a difficult summer. Burnham’s decision to delay an election reflects the uncertainty surrounding the shifting political landscape and the potential risks of facing a resurgent opposition.

Reform UK’s position remains precarious but competitive, underscored by a volatile popular vote and significant financial backing. The developments highlight a changing dynamic in the UK political arena, where no single party currently commands a decisive lead. As pressure mounts on Burnham, the timing of any election call will be closely scrutinized amid the evolving electoral prospects of all major parties.

This article was reported by synthesizing coverage from multiple independent news outlets to present a balanced, unbiased account. Read about our editorial standards. Spotted an error? Let us know.