Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party has seen a significant surge in public support, with recent polling indicating that nearly half of Britons now view it as the main opposition to the governing Labour Party. An Ipsos survey shows that 49% of respondents identify Reform UK as the primary opposition party, a notable increase from 37% in May 2025. By contrast, just 21% regard the Conservative Party as the main opposition, despite the Tories holding 116 seats in Parliament compared to Reform UK’s eight.

The poll also suggests growing voter openness to Reform UK, with one-third of those surveyed indicating they might consider voting for the party. This level of potential support surpasses that for Labour (31%), the Liberal Democrats (29%), the Conservatives (28%), the Greens (26%), and Restore Britain (19%). Among the perceived benefits if Reform UK were to govern, 35% of respondents cited tighter control over immigration, while 25% said the party represents traditional British values. One in five voters believes Reform UK would deliver “real change” and connect more closely with “real people.”

Despite the increases in support, concerns remain regarding certain aspects of Reform UK’s potential impact. Forty-three percent of respondents worry the party’s leadership could deepen national divisions, and 41% view Nigel Farage as an unsuitable candidate for prime minister. Additionally, about one-third of voters fear a Reform government might worsen public services such as the National Health Service, and 36% doubt the party’s capacity to form a competent administration.

The Conservative Party has disputed these polling results, with Shadow Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster Alex Burghart defending Kemi Badenoch’s tenure as Leader of the Opposition. Burghart emphasized the Conservative Party’s efforts to challenge Labour policies, stating that their actions have pressured Labour into policy reversals and greater transparency. He further asserted that neither Labour nor Reform UK have credible plans for the country and pledged to continue holding them accountable.

Meanwhile, David Jones, a former Conservative Brexit minister who now backs Reform UK, described the shifting political landscape as a “once-in-a-century realignment.” He noted that voters who traditionally turned to the Conservatives as the main alternative to Labour are increasingly supporting Reform UK, attracted by its focus on issues perceived as neglected by the political establishment.

The polling data coincide with a competitive by-election in Makerfield scheduled for June 18. A Survation poll ahead of the vote shows Labour’s candidate Andy Burnham with 48% support, while Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon commands 39%. Restore Britain’s Rebecca Shepherd trails at 8%, and Conservative Michael Winstanley holds 1%. This contest will provide a key test of Reform UK’s electoral strength amid the ongoing political realignment.