Reform UK has faced a challenging summer as it prepares for its annual conference in Birmingham this week, with internal divisions, strategic missteps, and stalled political momentum raising questions about the party’s trajectory.
The party, led by Nigel Farage, had hoped to leverage the parliamentary recess to push provocative statements and new policies, continuing a pattern from the previous summer when it capitalised on protests against hotels housing asylum seekers. However, aside from isolated disturbances in Thetford, Norfolk, the unrest that fuelled Reform’s 2025 summer narrative failed to re-emerge.
Despite regular press events and policy announcements, particularly from Robert Jenrick, Reform’s home affairs team has experienced turmoil. Zia Yusuf, the party’s home affairs spokesperson, was reprimanded by Farage after calling former Conservative defence secretary Ben Wallace a “traitor.” Additionally, the suspension of high-profile defector Tim Montgomerie exposed further internal tensions.
Perhaps most notably, Farage’s decision to trigger a by-election in Clacton, Essex, to counter scrutiny over a previously undisclosed £5 million donation from Reform donor Christopher Harborne, has been criticised as a strategic error. Though Farage secured a comfortable win against challenger Count Binface, the campaign confined him to the area for six weeks, limiting his national profile and media engagement. The other major parties largely ignored the contest, denying the narrative of a “people versus establishment” confrontation that Farage sought to highlight. Meanwhile, a parliamentary standards investigation into the donation has resumed following a temporary pause during the by-election.
Political observers have noted the party’s tactical strengths but highlighted strategic weaknesses. Giles Dilnot, editor of Conservative Home and a long-time observer of Farage, characterised the Clacton decision as a misstep made in anger, leading to a necessary break for Farage after a demanding year. Dilnot also pointed to the party’s failure to deliver a decisive blow to the Conservative Party despite repeated attacks, as well as the centralised leadership style that makes Farage both an asset and a liability. This approach, he suggested, contributes to internal conflicts and voter polarisation.
Polling data indicates that Reform’s surge in support has stalled. A recent survey by More in Common placed Reform at 23%, behind Labour at 27%, marking its weakest showing in 18 months. Ipsos polling similarly showed Labour leading Reform 28% to 25% for the first time since the last general election. Public sentiment also appears to weigh against Farage’s leadership, with 65% of respondents expressing doubt over his readiness to be prime minister and strong support for continuing the ongoing standards investigation.
Compounding these challenges, Reform faces competition on its right flank from Rupert Lowe’s hard-right Restore Britain party. In a recent Dover district council by-election, where Reform previously performed strongly, the party finished behind the Greens, with Restore Britain capturing 10% of the vote—a factor likely to concern Reform leadership.
Despite these difficulties, a Reform UK source dismissed assertions of decline, pointing to a strong pipeline of policies, steady work in local councils, and plans for a more expansive conference programme focused on policy discussion and business engagement. The party intends to use the Birmingham conference to outline its proposed first 100 days in government. One of the critical questions remains whether any internal dissent will emerge during the event.