Republican Senator Pete Ricketts of Nebraska holds a six-point lead over independent candidate Dan Osborn in the state’s upcoming Senate race, according to a recent poll conducted by Siena University in partnership with a national news organization. The election is scheduled for Tuesday and has drawn considerable attention as an indicator of how independent candidates might fare amid widespread dissatisfaction with both major parties.

Osborn, a union leader, is seeking to unseat Ricketts, who was appointed to fill the Senate seat following the resignation of former Senator Ben Sasse and subsequently won a special election by a wide margin two years ago. This year’s contest is notably closer, with Ricketts’ lead shrinking to single digits compared to his previous double-digit advantage.

The poll reveals significant voter skepticism about Osborn’s independent status. Sixty percent of voters perceive him as aligned with the Democratic Party rather than as a genuine independent, a perception that poses challenges in Nebraska, where the Republican brand remains strong. The state delivered a more than 20-point victory for Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election, and Republican support remains robust—45 percent of voters express satisfaction with the Republican Party compared to just 27 percent for Democrats.

Among independents, opinions on Osborn’s political identity are nearly evenly split, with 43 percent viewing him as more of an independent and 42 percent seeing him as more of a Democrat. Democrats constitute the only voting group that predominantly considers Osborn truly independent. Many Democratic leaders withdrew from the Senate race to back Osborn, aiming to prevent a split in the anti-Ricketts vote given Nebraska’s long history of electing Republicans to the Senate.

Osborn previously ran against Senator Deb Fischer in 2022, losing by about six percentage points, while Ricketts retained his seat in a special election held simultaneously. This cycle, Osborn has solidified over 90 percent support among Democrats and has built a sizable lead among independent voters by nearly 30 points.

Despite Osborn’s competitiveness, Ricketts maintains a strong lead among traditionally Republican constituencies, including older voters, white working-class voters, and men. The Senate race contrasts with Nebraska’s gubernatorial contest, where Republican Governor Jim Pillen leads his challenger by 14 points.

With few polls publicly available and some campaign-aligned surveys potentially overstating individual candidates’ strengths, the poll’s margin suggests the race is tighter than expected. Should Osborn gain even a small increase in support, the election could be closer than current figures indicate.