Rising fuel prices, tariffs, and other economic pressures are prompting some Iowa farmers to reconsider their political loyalties ahead of the November midterm elections. The state, which played a key role in Donald J. Trump’s political ascent, is showing signs of shifting support that could affect both congressional and statewide races.
Kelly Nieuwenhuis, a farmer from Primghar and a registered Republican who supported Mr. Trump in 2016 and 2020, now plans to split his vote in 2024. Citing concerns over high diesel costs, rising fertilizer prices, and depressed crop sales linked to ongoing trade conflicts with China, Canada, and Mexico, he intends to back Democrat Rob Sand for governor while supporting Republican Ashley Hinson for Senate.
“Every election it comes down to the economy,” Nieuwenhuis said, expressing frustration with economic conditions he attributes to policies during Trump’s presidency. Fuel costs for his farm machinery have nearly doubled amid tensions in the Middle East, particularly the war involving Iran, while inflation and international trade tensions have further squeezed incomes in the agricultural sector.
Iowa’s broader economy has struggled, with the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis reporting the state experienced its weakest annual growth in 2025 compared to other states. Elevated gas prices, high interest rates, tariffs, and shifting trade policies have weighed heavily on rural areas and sectors beyond farming. Major employers in Iowa, including John Deere, Wells Fargo, and Whirlpool, have announced job cuts in recent months.
In response to these economic challenges, Mr. Trump visited Sioux City last week, highlighting an $8 billion aid package aimed at farmers affected by rising diesel prices. Despite these efforts, farm bankruptcies in Iowa surged by 220 percent last year, and farmland values have remained subdued.
The Iowa Farmers Union, breaking with decades of nonpartisanship, endorsed the full Democratic congressional slate, reflecting widespread dissatisfaction with Republican policies at the federal level. Its executive director, Matt Russell, cited cuts to federal farm programs, canceled grants, and the expiration of Affordable Care Act subsidies as long-standing grievances magnified by recent geopolitical conflicts and economic pressures.
Some Iowa Republicans have voiced concerns as well. Senator Chuck Grassley urged the Trump administration to ease tariffs on Canadian potash, a critical fertilizer component, and recently called for a temporary ban on diesel exports to alleviate local costs.
Economist Peter Orazem of Iowa State University noted that the state’s economic growth has lagged far behind the national average over the past five years. He pointed to the impact of tariffs on manufacturing costs, Mr. Trump’s immigration restrictions increasing labor expenses, and opposition to renewable energy initiatives as factors hindering Iowa’s economy.
Agricultural sectors beyond row crops have also voiced frustrations. The Iowa Cattlemen’s Association opposed Mr. Trump’s decision to permit imports of discounted ground beef, arguing it undermined local ranchers by depressing market prices. Some lawmakers, including Senate candidate Ashley Hinson, criticized this policy.
While many farmers are reconsidering support for Republicans, some remain loyal. Jolene Riessen, a corn and soybean grower in Ida Grove, acknowledges the financial strain but continues to back Republican candidates, skeptical of Democratic policies and attributing some price increases to oil companies rather than government actions.
Political races in Iowa are increasingly competitive. Ms. Hinson is closely matched with Democratic state representative Mike Turck, and Republican candidates in several congressional districts face tight contests. Recent campaign decisions, including the cancellation of some Republican ad buys, underscore the challenging environment for GOP candidates.
With economic issues dominant in voter concerns, Iowa’s political landscape is poised for significant shifts as farmers and rural residents weigh their choices ahead of the midterm elections.