A research team at Sultan Qaboos University has developed a new framework designed to improve earthquake preparedness and urban planning in Oman. Led by Dr. Abdullah Ansari at the Earthquake Monitoring Center, the project introduces a multi-criteria seismic risk assessment system aimed at better understanding and managing earthquake vulnerabilities in urban settings.
The initiative, known as the Multicriteria Risk Assessment Framework for Enhancing Earthquake Preparedness for Urban Environment (M-RAFEEQ), employs Geographic Information System (GIS) technology to integrate various factors such as seismic activity, geotechnical conditions, structural characteristics, environmental influences, and socio-economic data. This comprehensive approach allows for a detailed evaluation of risks posed by earthquakes, particularly focusing on urban areas.
One of the primary objectives of the research is to create detailed microzonation maps for Al Seeb, a densely populated area near the capital city, Muscat. These maps delineate varying levels of earthquake risk within the region. According to Dr. Ansari, the study identified distinct high-risk zones including Al Hail North, Old Al Khoudh, and several industrial districts. These areas are particularly vulnerable due to factors such as weaker building structures, soils prone to liquefaction, and high urban density. Conversely, neighborhoods like Muscat Hills and Al Mouj showed relatively lower risk levels, attributed to stronger construction standards and more stable ground conditions.
The findings underscore the need for targeted mitigation measures, including retrofitting existing buildings in high-risk neighborhoods and incorporating seismic risk data into urban planning. The researchers advocate for stricter enforcement of the Oman Seismic Code (OSC 2013) and expanded geotechnical investigations before initiating new construction projects. They also emphasize the importance of enhancing access to hospitals and emergency response services, regulating the siting of industrial and fuel infrastructure to reduce potential secondary hazards, and promoting greater community awareness and resilience.
This interdisciplinary project involved a team of experts from Sultan Qaboos University, including Dr. Issa El Hussain, Dr. Ahmed Deif, Dr. Adel M. E. Mohamed, Professor Khalifa al Jabri, and Yousuf al Shijbi. It also benefited from international collaboration with researchers from South Korea, Norway, and Japan.
The framework aligns with the objectives of Oman Vision 2040 and supports the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 11, which focuses on building sustainable cities and communities. By providing a data-driven basis for decision-making, the research aims to enhance urban resilience and reduce the potential social and economic impacts of future earthquakes in Oman.