Hong Kong retailers are anticipating stronger sales during the upcoming National Day "golden week" holiday from October 1 to 7, although industry leaders caution that the overall gains may be more modest than the projected increase in mainland visitors suggests. Authorities expect around 1.29 million arrivals from the mainland during the period, representing a daily average more than 5 percent higher than last year.

Despite the higher visitor numbers, economists and retailers warn that cautious consumer sentiment and spending habits may temper growth. Gary Ng Cheuk-yan, senior economist at Natixis Corporate and Investment Bank, noted that while total retail revenues are likely to rise, the increase may not align proportionally with the surge in arrivals. Ng added that although a stronger yuan could improve Hong Kong’s attractiveness for mainland shoppers, spending may remain limited unless retailers offer substantial discounts.

Retailers are actively promoting discounts, shopping rewards, and special events to encourage increased spending. Sa Sa, a prominent cosmetics retailer, expressed optimism following stronger-than-expected sales during the May Day holiday. The company anticipates both foot traffic and average transaction values to see high double-digit growth during the National Day period. Sa Sa attributes some of this demand to positive social media reviews by mainland visitors and is extending its shopping festival promotions through mid-October while planning expansions in key tourist areas.

Retail sector lawmaker Peter Shui Ka-fai pointed to strong expectations among shops, particularly those dealing in gold, jewelry, dried seafood, and cosmetics, to achieve near 10 percent sales growth. Andrew Kwok Chi-wah, president of the Hong Kong Small and Medium Enterprises Association, shared similar projections for his retail members, citing promotional activity on mainland social media and large crowds drawn to Victoria Park’s Mid-Autumn Festival lantern displays as factors supporting optimism. However, Kwok noted that the benefits are not uniform, referencing slow business during the festival period at a Wan Chai restaurant he manages.

The food and beverage industry is forecasting an approximate 20 percent increase in business during the National Day break compared to typical weeks, consistent with last year's holiday performance. Michael Leung Chun-wah, chairman of the Association for Hong Kong Catering Services Management, highlighted that close to 4,000 eateries are participating in discount campaigns this year, up from around 3,000 outlets last year, creating broad incentives for diners.

Hotels are experiencing varied booking trends. Metropark Hotel Mong Kok deputy general manager Peter Tam reported occupancy rates of approximately 95 percent for the first four days of the holiday and about 80 percent from October 5 to 7, with average room rates slightly above standard October weekends. Tam expects business to match last year’s performance, noting some guests had arrived earlier to secure better rates or planned onward travel to Shenzhen or Macau after short stays.

Lawmaker Alan Chan Chung-yee, who is also chief operating officer of Miramar Group, indicated that bookings at its hotels stood below 60 percent as of late September, slightly behind the previous year’s pace. Still, he predicted last-minute bookings would raise occupancy to above 90 percent at properties in Tsim Sha Tsui and Causeway Bay. Chan observed that the separation of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays this year allows hotels to spread out demand rather than filling rapidly during one extended break.

Both hotel executives noted that visitors frequently dine and shop outside the hotel premises. Tam mentioned that most hotel guests tend to eat only one meal on site before exploring the Mong Kok area, while Chan highlighted growing interest among tourists in local shops and eateries. Chan also sees potential to engage younger visitors later in October with Halloween-themed promotions, including costume rentals and discounts, aiming to leverage the holiday’s appeal among youth to complement the more traditional National Day period.