Oil prices surged past $95 a barrel for the first time in six weeks amid renewed hostilities involving Iran, raising concerns over potential disruptions to global energy supplies. The recent escalation in conflict has driven Brent crude to a peak of $95.24 before settling near $93.20, representing a 2.4% increase from the previous day.

The increase follows a series of strikes targeting Iranian military assets near the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments. These attacks, now in their 11th consecutive night, have focused on aircraft hangars and drone storage facilities despite ongoing diplomatic efforts aimed at securing an interim ceasefire. Former U.S. President Donald Trump has declared that strikes will intensify, noting that the conflict has already cost the United States approximately $37.5 billion.

The current surge marks the fastest climb in oil prices since attacks by U.S. and Israeli forces disrupted Gulf exports through the Strait of Hormuz in March, when Brent crude prices peaked at $126 a barrel. After falling to around $71 earlier this month, the sharp rebound has renewed concerns over supply constraints. Analysts from Goldman Sachs have warned that, unless exports via Hormuz resume, oil prices could reach $120 per barrel by year-end.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has highlighted several factors that have so far helped moderate price increases, including coordinated releases of roughly 400 million barrels of emergency reserves from member countries and efforts by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to redirect crude exports through alternative routes. Additional supply relief has come from increased output in Europe and the Americas, while major importers such as China have reduced purchases, easing pressure on the market.

Despite these measures, the IEA cautioned that refinery activity and the supply of refined petroleum products like diesel and gasoline remain constrained. Fatih Birol, head of the IEA, noted that although crude deliveries through Gulf channels have improved during brief ceasefires, refinery utilization has lagged, tightening markets for refined fuels. He also pointed out that while U.S. and Canadian gas exports have offset about 70% of lost Gulf gas supplies, availability could tighten further as European countries replenish depleted gas storage ahead of winter.

Birol emphasized that a comprehensive resolution to the conflict, including the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, is crucial to maintaining global energy security.

The conflict has extended beyond military targets, with both sides reportedly aiming at civilian infrastructure. Iran has struck energy facilities and desalination plants supplying drinking water to neighboring Gulf states. The United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres condemned such attacks as unacceptable under international law, which generally prohibits assaults on civilian infrastructure unless it serves a military function.

Meanwhile, Norway’s Equinor reported a near doubling of its quarterly profits to $11.5 billion, attributing the surge to higher oil and gas prices linked to the conflict.

The volatile situation and stalled negotiations underscore ongoing risks to energy markets and regional stability. U.S. officials have indicated a willingness to escalate retaliation, with Trump threatening to target bridges or power plants in response to Iranian attacks on shipping vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz.