Riley could wait for USC to fire him. Or, he could go home

By the Editorial Team · Wednesday, October 28, 2026

USC head coach Lincoln Riley is struggling to adapt his offensive style to the Big Ten, leading to increased losses and growing uncertainty about his future with the Trojans. Speculation suggests he may return to the Big 12, possibly taking over at Baylor, where his offensive expertise could help revitalize the program.

Lincoln Riley, the head football coach at the University of Southern California (USC), faces mounting challenges as his tenure with the Trojans shows signs of faltering following their move to the Big Ten Conference. Once dominant in the Big 12 as Oklahoma’s head coach, Riley’s transition to Southern California and the new conference has been marked by increased losses and frustration, prompting speculation about his future.

Riley, a native of Muleshoe, Texas, left Oklahoma in 2021 to take over at USC. His first season saw promise, leading the Trojans to a Pac-12 championship appearance and narrowly missing a College Football Playoff berth. However, since USC’s shift from the Pac-12 to the Big Ten, the program’s momentum has declined, coinciding with the departure of standout quarterback Caleb Williams to the NFL. USC’s struggles continued with a notable defeat against Wisconsin, signaling deeper challenges adapting to the Big Ten’s style of play, which contrasts with the offensive strategies Riley thrived on in the Big 12.

The former Oklahoma coach’s 41-20 record at USC, including a 2-2 bowl record, has come under scrutiny as the Trojans’ performance faltered in this new environment. Riley’s offensive approach, particularly his familiarity with Air Raid concepts, has long been effective in the Big 12, a conference known for high-scoring, fast-paced games. Critics argue that Riley’s system may be less suited to the more physical, defense-oriented style prevalent in the Big Ten.

As speculation swirls around his future, some insiders suggest Riley could seek a return to Texas and the Big 12, with Baylor University emerging as a potential landing spot. Baylor, which has struggled offensively following the termination of former head coach Dave Aranda, could represent an opportunity for Riley to revive both his career and the Bears’ program. Such a move would bring him closer to home and allow him to leverage his proven success within the Big 12 framework.

USC’s administration faces a dilemma with Riley’s contract, which still carries five years and includes a significant buyout clause. Observers note that a mutual separation might be in both parties’ best interests, given the current lack of progress and the financial complexities involved.

Supporters of Riley emphasize that recent setbacks do not negate his coaching acumen, pointing to his previous achievements and the possibility of future success in a more compatible conference. Meanwhile, critics argue that continued losses in the Big Ten threaten to derail his career if a change is not made soon.

With the anticipated expansion of the College Football Playoff to 24 teams on the horizon, some analysts believe Riley could position a Big 12 program like Baylor as a competitive contender, rejuvenating his coaching trajectory.

As of now, Riley remains the head coach at USC, but questions persist about how long that will last in the face of mounting pressure and the challenges of adapting to a new conference landscape.

This article was reported by synthesizing coverage from multiple independent news outlets to present a balanced, unbiased account. Read about our editorial standards. Spotted an error? Let us know.