USC’s football program is facing increasing pressure following a 24-7 loss to Wisconsin on Saturday, marking one of the most disappointing performances during head coach Lincoln Riley’s tenure. The defeat came immediately after a bye week, deepening concerns about the team’s direction and the culture under Riley’s leadership. With four games remaining this season, including three against top-10 opponents, USC’s chances of qualifying for the College Football Playoff are increasingly slim. A single additional loss would eliminate the Trojans from playoff contention for the fifth consecutive year since Riley took over as head coach.
Fans and commentators alike have expressed growing frustration, with a notable portion calling for Riley’s dismissal. However, USC’s recent history with midseason coaching changes suggests such a move could have significant negative consequences. The three previous coaches before Riley—Lane Kiffin, Steve Sarkisian, and Clay Helton—all were fired midseason, resulting in instability and setbacks for the program. Kiffin’s dismissal in 2013, for example, led to interim coach Ed Orgeron temporarily reviving the team but left USC in a difficult position when Orgeron was not retained.
Similarly, after Sarkisian’s departure, the decision to hire Helton initially seemed promising but ultimately failed to sustain progress. Helton’s firing in 2021 led to an interim appointment of Donte Williams, under whose leadership the team reportedly struggled with internal disarray, negatively impacting player morale. The subsequent hiring of Riley was viewed as a major acquisition, though the circumstances required USC to offer a lucrative contract.
USC athletic director Jennifer Cohen now faces a challenging situation. While some stakeholders favor a coaching change, midseason turnover could trigger speculation and uncertainty that might further disrupt the team. Reportedly, the players continue to support Riley despite the recent setbacks. Complicating any decision is the financial impact of terminating Riley’s contract, which would require USC to pay an estimated $70 million buyout plus additional sums for his coaching staff.
Sources familiar with USC’s internal discussions suggest that if a coaching change were to occur, it might be more strategically managed at the end of the season. Waiting would provide a clearer picture of available coaching vacancies and might enable negotiations that reduce the financial burden on the program. For example, if Riley could secure another position elsewhere, the cost to USC could be partially offset.
Several coaching openings are anticipated in the near future. Baylor recently opened its head coaching position and is reportedly seeking a candidate with Texas connections, potentially aligning with Riley’s background. Texas Christian University could also emerge as an option if current coach Sonny Dykes is unable to improve results. Such developments might offer a pathway for transition that mitigates risks to USC’s program stability.
Given these factors, the prevailing assessment is that maintaining Riley through the remainder of the season may be the most prudent course, despite disappointing results to this point. USC officials and observers emphasize caution, noting that a hasty move could exacerbate challenges rather than resolve them.