Couples with children in Italy are projected to become outnumbered by childless couples within the next two decades, according to data released by the country’s national statistics agency, Istat. The report highlights ongoing demographic challenges despite government efforts to encourage higher birthrates.

Istat reported that in 2025, there were approximately 7.5 million couples with children, representing 28.1 percent of households. This figure is expected to decline to around 5.8 million couples, or 21.1 percent of households, by 2050. Meanwhile, childless couples are forecast to increase from 5.4 million in 2025 to 5.9 million by 2050, accounting for 21.4 percent of households and surpassing couples with children by 2047.

Italy’s prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, has characterized the country’s declining birthrate as an existential crisis and introduced tax relief measures intended to support families, particularly mothers. However, the demographic trends suggest these policies have not reversed the decline. Young couples continue to delay starting families, partly due to economic pressures such as the difficulty of securing stable employment and mortgages without parental guarantees.

Gigi De Palo, head of the Italian Foundation for Births, pointed to the structural issues facing young Italians. He noted that while surveys indicate strong desires among younger generations to have children—70 percent of those aged 10 to 19 want children, and most prefer two or more—the reality of low wages and precarious job markets pushes many to postpone parenthood. He emphasized that government bonuses have had limited impact and called for broader support, including expanded mortgage access for younger adults.

The government has also sought to improve childcare infrastructure using European Union funds to open more public nursery schools. Nonetheless, in cities like Rome, public nurseries still serve only 42 percent of children, leaving many working mothers to rely on expensive private care.

Istat also noted differences in measurement methodologies between Italy and the European Union. The EU counts childless households rather than couples and considers only children under 18, whereas Istat includes children living at home beyond this age.

In broader demographic terms, Italy’s overall population is expected to decline substantially from 58.9 million in 2025 to 45.8 million by 2080. The population decrease will be most acute in southern regions, where numbers could fall by more than a third. The country’s population is aging significantly; projections suggest that by 2080, people over 65 could constitute nearly 37 percent of the population, far exceeding the under-15 age group, which will comprise just 10 percent.

Last year saw the lowest number of births in Italy since unification in 1861, amounting to 355,000. Experts trace the demographic decline back to the 1980s, when economic shifts prompted Italians to reconsider the costs and benefits of having children. An Istat researcher commented that the data reflect ongoing societal changes that render the observed trends unsurprising.