Oil exports from the Persian Gulf have surged towards pre-conflict levels amid heightened U.S. military protection of maritime routes, signaling a potential decline in Iran’s capacity to disrupt regional trade. According to maritime analytics firm Kpler, crude oil shipments flowing through the Strait of Hormuz averaged more than 7.3 million barrels per day in September, marking the highest throughput since the onset of the conflict earlier this year. Overall exports from the Persian Gulf reached approximately 13 million barrels per day last month, around 72% of the volume recorded in February prior to the outbreak of hostilities between the U.S., Israel, and Iran.

The increased oil traffic follows the launch of Operation Economic Outcast, aimed at undermining Iran’s ability to finance terrorism and develop nuclear weapons, according to U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. He attributed record lows in the Iranian rial to the sustained sanctions campaign and pledged continued efforts to limit the regime’s revenue streams.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright highlighted the uptick during an interview, noting that on at least one occasion in the past week, oil shipments through the strait exceeded pre-war levels, with a single day’s flow reaching over 20 million barrels. Despite this peak, the average number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz each day remains significantly below the pre-conflict norm, with an estimated 17 ships traversing the route daily.

To compensate for challenges at the strait, oil exports have increased along alternative corridors. Ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman and pipeline flows through the United Arab Emirates’ Fujairah facility, which circumvents the strait, have contributed to the overall rise in Gulf exports. These logistical adjustments have helped stabilize the region’s crude oil supply despite ongoing tensions.

U.S. officials argue that these trends demonstrate a diminished Iranian threat to commercial shipping in the area. No Iranian attacks on vessels have been confirmed in nearly a week, reinforcing assessments that Tehran’s ability to disrupt maritime traffic has weakened considerably. Analysts view the resurgence in oil exports as a sign that U.S. and allied efforts to secure critical energy routes and enforce economic pressure on Iran are having a measurable impact.