In an election set to make historic waves, the nationalist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is poised to potentially seize power in Saxony-Anhalt, a small eastern German state of approximately 2.1 million people. If successful, this would mark the first time since World War II that a far-right party has taken control of a German state government—a development that has raised concern both within Germany and across Europe.

The AfD’s rise in Saxony-Anhalt is driven by a mix of economic grievances, demographic shifts, and opposition to immigration. The state, part of the former East Germany, struggles with an unemployment rate above the national average and an aging population. Many residents express feelings of marginalization and stagnation since reunification in 1990, fueling resentment toward established parties such as the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Social Democrats. Critics argue that these mainstream parties have failed to improve living conditions or respond adequately to local concerns.

Ulrich Siegmund, the AfD candidate to govern the state, has capitalized on these frustrations with a platform promising strict immigration controls, including mass deportations, and policies aimed at supporting native-born German families. The party’s social media presence has amplified anxieties about cultural change and economic decline, appealing particularly to younger voters in Saxony-Anhalt, where skepticism toward Germany’s multicultural policies has grown since Chancellor Angela Merkel’s decision in 2015 to admit over a million migrants, many fleeing conflicts such as Syria.

The AfD is also notable for its more radical positioning compared to other far-right parties in Europe. While similar movements in countries like Italy and France have sought to moderate their image, the AfD has strengthened ties with extremist groups and neo-Nazi elements. German intelligence agencies have classified the party as a “right-wing extremist” entity, though banning it is no longer seen as feasible due to its size. Some party leaders have made statements downplaying Nazi atrocities and have voiced opposition to Islam’s place within Germany’s constitutional order.

This rise has prompted fears about Germany’s democratic stability, given the country’s historical context. Chancellor Friedrich Merz has acknowledged the significance of a potential AfD government, emphasizing the unique implications in Germany compared to other EU states. The established parties have maintained a so-called “firewall,” refusing to enter coalitions with the AfD. However, experts caution that if the AfD secures a plurality of seats without a majority, forming a government excluding them could become more complex.

Economic concerns play a significant role in the AfD’s appeal. Germany faces a structural economic downturn, with its export-dependent manufacturing sector challenged by global competition and geopolitical tensions. Moreover, the government’s focus on remilitarization and cuts in welfare spending have alienated parts of the electorate. The AfD has positioned itself as an anti-interventionist alternative, criticizing increased military expenditures and Germany’s alignment with NATO’s strategy toward Russia, gaining support among voters nostalgic for the former East German communist regime and skeptical of Western policies.

The AfD’s surge reflects broader right-wing populist trends across Europe, where parties critical of immigration and integration are gaining ground. In neighboring countries such as France, Italy, Spain, and Poland, similar movements have influenced national politics or hold promising electoral prospects. Spain, in particular, has seen intensified migration-related tensions following a mass border crossing in its enclave of Ceuta, leading to political instability and calls for stricter immigration policies.

Despite the AfD’s increased influence, opponents warn that the party’s simplistic solutions may fail to address the complex social and economic challenges Germany faces. Saxony-Anhalt’s incumbent governor, Sven Schulze of the CDU, has criticized the AfD’s governance proposals as inadequate. The outcome of the Saxony-Anhalt election will not only shape the state’s future but also serve as a bellwether for Germany’s political direction amidst rising polarization and the ongoing contest between centrist parties and the far right.