During the recent World Cup, prediction markets in the United States have attracted significant attention for their high trading volumes and rapid market movements. One example involved Dode Dahroug, a former RAF pilot from Reading, who used real-time data from Polymarket, a US-based prediction market platform, to seemingly predict a goal before it aired on his television. Dahroug's experience illustrates how these platforms use split-second odds updates to inform users, offering a blend of betting and financial trading.

Prediction markets like Polymarket and its competitor Kalshi have surged in popularity in the US, capitalizing on a regulatory environment shaped by the 2018 repeal of a federal ban on sports betting. These platforms classify themselves as financial trading products, which has allowed them to operate under the oversight of the Commodities and Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) rather than traditional gambling regulators. This status has enabled them to bypass restrictions on sports betting in many states, even as regulatory frameworks remain uneven, with large states such as California and Texas yet to formalize their regimes.

Market data released by these platforms during the World Cup indicate trading volumes reaching at least $45 billion. However, analysts caution that these figures can be misleading. Much of the volume stems from customers buying and selling open betting positions multiple times rather than new money being risked each time. Analysts at Eilers & Krejcik Gaming estimate actual stakes wagered on World Cup events in the US to be closer to $5.6 billion per month, approximately double the £2 billion wagered through UK sportsbooks, despite the UK economy being much smaller.

In the UK, prediction markets are currently not licensed for operation, with the Gambling Commission stating that such platforms would require a gambling licence to offer sports-related trading. The UK’s Financial Conduct Authority also views betting on financial markets through products like binary options as prohibited. Nonetheless, the accessibility of these platforms via virtual private networks (VPNs) and cryptocurrency payments means many British users are able to participate despite the regulatory restrictions. Some betting on UK political events through these prediction markets has reportedly reached millions of dollars, suggesting significant, albeit unofficial, UK involvement.

Opinions vary on whether prediction markets will gain mainstream acceptance in the UK. James Bradley, founder of the consumer advocacy group Fairer Finance, warns of the risks posed by the rise of prediction markets, highlighting potential negative impacts on gambling behavior and democratic processes. Bradley points to recent political betting scandals in the UK and incidents of insider trading involving geopolitical events in the US as examples of the potential dangers. By contrast, gambling analyst Alun Bowden of Eilers & Krejcik Gaming is more skeptical, noting that the consumer demand that fuels prediction markets in the US—especially where legal sports betting is unavailable—does not exist to the same extent in the UK, where established betting exchanges already provide similar services.

Both sides acknowledge the platforms’ rapid growth and their ability to turn a broad array of events—from sports and politics to global crises—into market opportunities. However, the extent to which prediction markets will develop in Britain remains uncertain amid regulatory challenges and differing consumer appetites.