The war in Ukraine has seen a sharp escalation in Russian missile attacks in recent months, with Moscow reportedly repurposing training missiles to sustain its aerial onslaught while conserving more advanced weaponry. According to Ukrainian officials and military analysts, a significant portion of the missiles fired this summer were RM48U missiles, originally designed as target practice for air defense crews, but now adapted by Russia for offensive use.
On August 5, a missile strike on a suburban railway platform in the Brovary district near Kyiv resulted in the deaths of eight civilians. Ukrainian investigators concluded that the RM48U was responsible for the attack, not Russia’s primary Iskander ballistic missile. Forensic analysis pointed to the RM48U’s lower accuracy and wide-area fragmentation effects as factors contributing to high civilian casualties. Officials noted an average deviation of around 300 meters from intended targets for these missiles, which are launched from S-400 air-defense systems and follow ballistic trajectories at high speeds.
Official Ukrainian data obtained by military analysts indicates that RM48Us accounted for more than half of the 228 ballistic and hypersonic missiles fired at Ukraine between July and early August. The surge in RM48U usage coincided with a noticeable reduction in the deployment of the more precise Iskander missiles, which were fired 38 times in July, down from over 100 launches the previous month.
Experts suggest that Russia’s use of RM48Us serves to preserve its limited stocks of advanced missiles, including Iskanders, KN-23s, and hypersonic Zircon missiles, for future operations, particularly during the winter when critical infrastructure may be targeted. The General Prosecutor’s Office of Ukraine and other military sources said Russia plans to significantly increase RM48U production this year, potentially more than doubling output from 200 in 2025 to 480 missiles.
The high tempo of missile strikes this summer has occurred as Ukraine’s air defenses face challenges in intercepting incoming projectiles. Ukraine’s stock of U.S.-supplied Patriot interceptors, the only system currently able to counter Russian ballistic missiles effectively, has been severely depleted. While additional supplies are expected, officials report delays and competing demands from other U.S. allies have slowed delivery. A senior U.S. administration official acknowledged the need to balance the strategic deployment of munitions with expanded production capacity and indicated ongoing discussions about future defense industrial collaboration with Ukraine.
The intensifying missile campaign comes amid a broader intensification of the conflict, with both Russia and Ukraine increasing long-range strike operations. Ukraine has launched hundreds of long-range drone attacks against Russian infrastructure, including refineries and ports. Meanwhile, Russia has focused on degrading Ukrainian logistics and industrial sites, as seen in the Brovary attacks, which Ukrainian authorities say also struck facilities storing drone components.
The United Nations reported that July marked the deadliest month for civilians in Ukraine since the early phases of the conflict, with at least 437 civilian fatalities, attributing much of the rise to missile and drone strikes. Russian civilian casualties, although lower, have also reached record levels in 2026.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy underscored the critical need for improved missile defenses following the August 5 attacks, stressing that ballistic missile interceptors could have prevented many casualties. As the conflict continues, the ability of Ukraine to replenish and expand its air defense systems remains a vital factor in countering Russia’s evolving missile strategies.