A recent surge in Russia’s missile strikes on Ukraine has been driven in large part by the deployment of repurposed training missiles, marking a shift in Moscow’s aerial campaign. Ukrainian officials have identified the widespread use of RM48U missiles, originally designed as targets for air defense drills, as a key factor behind the increased volume of ballistic missile attacks this summer.
The attack on a railway station in the Brovary district near Kyiv on August 5, which left eight civilians dead, was attributed by Ukrainian investigators to an RM48U missile rather than Russia’s more precise Iskander strike missile. Analysis by Ukraine’s military intelligence and the General Prosecutor’s Office found that these RM48Us follow a ballistic trajectory but are less accurate and less powerful than primary strike missiles. The average deviation from intended targets is around 300 meters, and the blast spreads shrapnel over a wide area, contributing to civilian casualties.
Data reviewed by Ukrainian authorities shows that more than half of the 228 ballistic and hypersonic missiles launched in July and early August were RM48Us. This represents a significant increase in the use of these training missiles, which are fired from Russia’s S-400 air defense systems, allowing Moscow to sustain high-frequency missile barrages without depleting stocks of more advanced weapons such as Iskanders, KN-23s, and Zircons. The number of Iskander missiles launched fell from over 100 in June to 38 in July, according to Ukrainian figures.
Experts suggest that Russia’s strategy involves using the lower-precision RM48Us to target less critical infrastructure and drain Ukraine’s remaining missile defense interceptors, particularly Patriot systems supplied by the United States. Ukraine’s supply of these interceptors is reportedly near exhaustion, and new deliveries have been slowed as the US prioritizes its own allies.
Russia has not publicly commented on its deployment of RM48Us, but its defense ministry claimed on the same day as the Brovary attack that it struck a logistics center used for storing drone components in the area. Moscow denies intentionally targeting civilians, stating its strikes focus solely on military infrastructure.
The intensification of Russia’s ballistic missile campaign coincides with mounting civilian casualties in Ukraine. The United Nations reported that at least 437 civilians died in Ukraine during July, the highest monthly toll since the conflict began in early 2022, attributing much of the harm to missile and drone attacks. Russian civilian fatalities have also risen, with open-source investigators documenting 327 deaths in the first seven months of 2026, more than double the figure for the previous year.
The ongoing conflict has settled into a phase of entrenched frontlines complemented by expanded long-range aerial attacks. Ukraine, with a comparatively smaller missile arsenal, has responded by striking Russian energy and port facilities with drones, while Russia aims to inflict widespread damage on infrastructure in the coming winter months.
Though Ukrainian air forces have ceased publicly reporting detailed missile launch and interception statistics to prevent Russian exploitation for propaganda, intelligence suggests the pace and scale of attacks remain at an unprecedented level, underscoring the evolving nature of Russia’s missile strategy in the war.