Russia appears to be escalating its air campaign against Ukraine with the objective of crippling the country’s energy infrastructure and compelling Kyiv to surrender. The intensified attacks come as Russia seeks to exploit weakened Ukrainian air defenses and infrastructure degradation after years of conflict. Moscow has deployed waves of missile and drone strikes targeting energy facilities, industrial centers, ammunition depots, and other critical infrastructure, with a surge in operations expected this winter.
According to an intercepted Russian attack plan presented by Ukrainian officials to European partners, Moscow estimates that it would require about 70 ballistic missiles, 720 long-range drones, and 150 guided bombs to sever water, power, and heating supplies to the major Ukrainian cities of Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odesa. Analysts note that this volume matches roughly the monthly average of Russian missiles and drones penetrating Ukrainian air defenses, signaling Russia’s ambition to achieve in one month what previous years of attacks have not.
Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, has already experienced power outages this month amid strikes on three combined heat-and-power plants that historically supply about three-quarters of the city’s winter electricity demand. Years of bombardment have reduced these plants’ capacity from approximately 1.3 gigawatts prewar to about 500 megawatts currently, according to energy analyst Maria Tsaturian. Recent missile strikes further impaired these facilities, raising concerns about the city’s ability to maintain stable power as winter approaches.
The deterioration of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure compounds the country’s vulnerability, especially given Russia’s growing missile and drone arsenal and the depletion of Ukraine’s air defenses, including the limited number of U.S.-supplied Patriot interceptors. On one recent day, Ukraine intercepted only four out of 39 ballistic missiles launched by Russia, many aimed at energy infrastructure. This represents one of the largest missile barrages Moscow has conducted since the start of the war.
While Russia’s campaign aims to inflict severe material damage and civilian hardship to pressure Ukraine into capitulation, military experts caution that such strategies historically have been ineffective. Observers cite examples from Vietnam, the Persian Gulf, and recent conflicts where sustained bombing failed to force surrender. Ukrainian officials and analysts acknowledge the scale of damage Russia can inflict but remain skeptical that Moscow will achieve its ultimate goal of forcing Ukraine’s government to give in.
Meanwhile, Ukraine has conducted its own strikes against Russian oil refineries to disrupt Kremlin revenue streams, a campaign recently paused to comply with demands from the U.S. administration but resumed amid growing tensions following new American restrictions on Ukrainian military assistance, including limitations on critical satellite internet services.
As winter approaches, Kyiv and other cities’ reliance on external power sources such as nuclear and hydroelectric plants increases, but these facilities and their transmission networks remain vulnerable to continued Russian attacks. Ukrainian and European officials describe Moscow’s strategy as a “scorched earth” effort to isolate key urban centers and cause widespread disruption to heating, water, and sewage services.
The ongoing aerial offensive underscores the evolving dynamics of the conflict, with Russia betting on a sustained missile and drone campaign to achieve strategic objectives on the battlefield amid a stalemate with ground forces. The resilience of Ukraine’s population and military response, however, continues to challenge Russia’s hopes of securing a decisive victory through bombardment alone.