The Kremlin has interpreted recent shifts in the U.S. administration’s stance toward Ukraine as a significant victory for Russia, seeing it as indicative of waning Western support for Kyiv amid ongoing conflict. Over the past ten days, the Trump administration has implemented a series of policy changes that Moscow views as favorable to its interests.

Among the moves, the United States has issued a sanctions waiver allowing continued Russian diesel exports to the global market, restricted Ukraine’s access to critical satellite-based battlefield intelligence systems, delayed the imposition of broad new sanctions on Russia, and slowed the provision of interceptor missiles to Kyiv. Additionally, former President Donald Trump has publicly called for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to be replaced, amplifying pressure on the current Ukrainian leadership.

On Monday, Trump reiterated his position, stating it was “time for somebody else to negotiate on behalf of Ukraine,” signaling a shift he and his allies suggest could open a path to diplomatic resolution. The evolving situation unfolds against a backdrop of political instability in Europe, which Russia views as weakening the cohesion of its adversaries.

Amid these developments, Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff is scheduled to meet in Oslo with Zelensky, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store. Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, is expected to join the meeting via video conference. Norwegian Prime Minister Store emphasized that the discussions aim “to put diplomatic effort on a more constructive path.”

Zelensky voiced strong concerns about the potential consequences of the U.S. adopting a stance sympathetic to Russia. In remarks on NBC News’ “Meet the Press,” he warned that alignment between Washington and Moscow would jeopardize Ukraine’s survival. “If the United States will support Putin — it’s unbelievable, it’s a tragedy,” Zelensky said. “If these two countries will be together, of course we will not prevail. And we will not be able to stand.”

European leaders and the Ukrainian president hope the Oslo meeting will persuade the Trump administration to maintain robust support for Ukraine, including continued military assistance and sanctions pressure on Russia. However, the willingness of key U.S. figures to reconsider policy signals a complex and uncertain diplomatic landscape ahead in the effort to resolve the conflict.