An explosion at a fuel storage facility in Moscow last week may have been caused by a Russian air defense missile rather than a Ukrainian drone, according to an analysis of social media footage verified by independent experts. The blast on Thursday occurred amid Ukraine’s largest drone strike on the Russian capital since the beginning of the conflict.
The incident unfolded at a fuel silo in southeast Moscow, where the roof was seen being propelled into the air before crashing down amid thick black smoke and flames. While Russian authorities reported having shot down 992 drones across the country during the attacks that day, the cause of the fuel silo explosion has drawn scrutiny. Video evidence suggests a surface-to-air missile fired from a portable air defense system, known as a MANPADS, may have mistakenly struck the facility.
A video originally shared on the Chinese social platform Douyin showed two missiles launched near the Kapotnya oil refinery. One missile, traveling on a low trajectory consistent with MANPADS use, appeared to hit the fuel silo just before the explosion. British defense expert Michael Clarke noted that the missile’s flight characteristics matched those of a MANPAD, including its origin, low altitude, and distinctive thin contrail without early launch smoke.
Additional videos showed uniformed personnel firing MANPADs from a roadside near the refinery in efforts to intercept Ukrainian drones overhead. The attacks are part of a broader Ukrainian strategy, initiated by President Volodymyr Zelensky, to pressure the Kremlin by intensifying drone strikes on infrastructure in and around Moscow. This campaign has targeted oil and fuel facilities more widely, contributing to fuel shortages and rationing in Russia.
The Kremlin has not publicly commented on Thursday’s blast or subsequent drone attacks the following day, which the Moscow region governor, Andrei Y. Vorobyev, said resulted in the death of an eight-year-old girl. Kremlin spokesman Dmitri S. Peskov stated that President Vladimir V. Putin was receiving ongoing updates and asserted that Russian air defenses were performing well despite difficulties.
Russia’s defense ministry did not immediately respond to requests for comment. The challenges faced by Russian forces mirror those encountered globally in combatting large drone swarms, which present a different threat profile than manned aircraft or conventional missiles. Traditional air defense systems, designed for higher-value targets, are costly to operate and less suited for countering hundreds of low-cost drones.
In response, Russian forces appeared to deploy a vehicle-mounted Pantsir missile defense system near the area affected by the attacks, according to further verified footage. While these systems can target drones, managing large-scale drone swarms remains problematic.
Ukraine, which has only recently increased production of longer-range drones, is using these capabilities to conduct coordinated strikes numbering in the hundreds, drawing parallels to Russian drone tactics employed against Ukrainian targets. Experts suggest both sides are struggling with the costly and resource-intensive nature of drone interception. Some analysts view the use of MANPADs against drones flying at low altitude over urban areas as a sign of Russian desperation, with potential for unintended consequences such as the fuel silo explosion.