For the first time since the full-scale invasion in February 2022, civilian deaths in Russia have surged notably as Ukraine intensifies its long-range aerial campaign against targets deep within Russian territory. The increase in casualties marks a significant shift from previous fighting, which largely confined civil harm to border regions or Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine.

On Monday, Russian officials reported that at least 13 people were killed in a Ukrainian missile strike on an oil refinery in Nizhnekamsk, an industrial city in the Tatarstan region roughly 550 miles east of Moscow. This attack ranks among the deadliest strikes on Russian soil since the conflict escalated.

Data compiled by the Conflict Intelligence Team, an independent group monitoring the war’s casualties, indicate that from January through July 2026, 327 civilians died in Russia from drone attacks, airstrikes, and shelling outside occupied territories—a sharp increase from 145 deaths recorded during the same period last year. Additionally, the number of injuries more than doubled, with 2,366 civilians wounded compared to previous figures.

Ukrainian authorities describe the intensified campaign against oil refineries, online retail warehouses, and other infrastructure as part of a broader effort to pressure Russian President Vladimir V. Putin to end the war. Kyiv maintains it does not deliberately target civilians, a stance considered vital for sustaining international support. Nevertheless, some attacks have caused unintended civilian casualties.

The escalation in attacks has coincided with a notable decline in Putin’s domestic approval ratings and growing unease among the Russian population weary of ongoing hostilities. Despite this, it remains unclear if the rise in civilian deaths within Russia will influence the Kremlin’s strategy or resolve.

Despite increasing casualties in regions far from the front lines, Moscow city itself has remained free of deaths linked to Ukrainian strikes. Putin has urged Russians to resist what he describes as psychological warfare intended to erode public morale.

The conflict has evolved into a protracted aerial duel, with both Russia and Ukraine conducting large-scale attacks beyond direct combat zones, heightening the risk to civilians on both sides. Ukrainian civilians continue to suffer the highest toll, enduring increasing casualties from Russian ballistic missile and drone strikes. Ukraine, limited by a shortage of Western interceptors, is reportedly close to deploying its own ballistic missiles but currently lacks such capability.

According to the Conflict Intelligence Team, 1,695 civilians were killed in Ukrainian-controlled areas during the first seven months of this year, representing a 25 percent rise from 2025. Injuries in these areas also increased, reaching 12,515. Approximately 70 percent of civilian deaths from aerial attacks this year occurred in territory held by Ukraine.

The United Nations estimates that more than 16,000 civilians have died across Ukraine since the conflict began, including territories occupied by Russia. However, actual figures likely surpass these totals, given limited access and verification challenges in occupied zones. For instance, Human Rights Watch has estimated over 8,000 deaths during the 2022 siege of Mariupol, based on satellite imagery of burial sites.

Military losses in the war are estimated at around half a million for both Russian and Ukrainian forces, with Russia suffering the heavier casualties.

Russia denies targeting civilians, though its ballistic missile strikes on Ukrainian residential areas have caused substantial destruction often with no discernible military objectives. Following a Ukrainian attack on a Moscow refinery, Russia launched a large assault on Kyiv earlier this year, resulting in 31 deaths.

Within Russia, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky refers to the long-range strikes as “long-range sanctions” aiming to disrupt the logistics sustaining Russia’s war effort. Some attacks have, however, clearly struck civilian areas. In June, a drone strike killed a six-month-old infant in Yegoryevsk, near Moscow, and earlier this month, a drone explosion on a crowded beach in the Krasnodar region killed seven people, including three children. That area hosts a major natural gas pipeline compressor station, raising questions about potential intended targets.

Additional civilian fatalities in Russia may have resulted from a Ukrainian incursion into the western Kursk region in 2024 and early 2025, where Russian authorities reported 640 civilian deaths, though details remain limited and numbers are disputed.

The Conflict Intelligence Team’s casualty figures exclude deaths from ground fighting and focus on verifiable airstrikes, drone attacks, and shelling. The intensifying aerial dimension of the conflict underscores the growing human cost on both sides and the increasingly blurred boundaries between the battlefield and civilian life.