Russia has intensified its campaign against Ukraine’s Western backers through a series of covert operations across Europe, as Moscow struggles to make advances on the battlefield in Ukraine and grapples with mounting Ukrainian drone and missile attacks within its own territory.
European authorities have attributed a recent wave of drone incursions, cyberattacks, sabotage, and other hostile activities to Russian actors, signaling a surge in what experts describe as “grey-zone” tactics designed to undermine support for Kyiv and sow discord among NATO allies. This pattern has increased notably since April, with incidents rising from roughly 10 per month to about 15, according to the Sahaidachnyi Security Centre, a Ukrainian organization that monitors Russian operations in Europe. However, some suspected Russian-linked actions remain unconfirmed and thus uncounted in official tallies.
Among recent events, German authorities discovered three explosive drones near an airport, including one concealed beneath a Ukrainian cargo plane. Russian drones have also repeatedly penetrated NATO airspace, with several intercepted or shot down, including a recent incident over Romania. Dutch intelligence reports suggest systematic Russian digital espionage efforts involving the hacking of web-connected cameras to monitor Western aid shipments bound for Ukraine.
Officials across Europe have raised concerns about Russia recruiting local operatives through social media platforms such as Telegram to carry out sabotage, espionage, and vandalism aimed at inciting internal divisions. Estonia is investigating a possible Russian role in the recent arson of defense firm Milrem Robotics, while unexplained fires and explosions at munitions warehouses in Italy, Bulgaria, and Finland have also triggered suspicion.
Slovak authorities recently foiled an attempted attack on a drone manufacturing facility by three unidentified foreign nationals, raising further speculation about Russian involvement. Meanwhile, US intelligence warns that Russia may consider a limited military assault on a NATO member state within the next few years, potentially involving cyberattacks or small-scale incursions. Such an act would test the alliance’s collective defense commitment, which stipulates that an attack on one member is an attack on all.
Officials suggest that Moscow’s broader objective is to disrupt the current European security landscape and weaken political cohesion ahead of elections in multiple NATO countries, including Germany, France, Finland, Estonia, and Poland. Polish authorities, in particular, face heightened challenges as societal tensions over Ukrainian refugees persist. Estonian politician Marko Mihkelson has characterized the operations as extensions of prior Russian election interference efforts seen in various countries.
Despite these efforts, support for Ukraine remains strong, especially in Eastern European NATO members. In Romania, public opinion has hardened against Russia following several drone incursions last month, which included attacks that caused property damage and prompted the expulsion of a Russian diplomat. Moscow retaliated by expelling a Romanian diplomat from Russia.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has dismissed accusations of Russian involvement, describing them as pretexts for increased European militarization. The situation reflects a growing standoff in Europe, with Russia employing a mix of cyber, drone, and covert tactics to challenge NATO and undermine Kyiv’s supporters while avoiding open warfare.