Ryanair has announced a reduction in its winter flight schedule in response to sustained high jet fuel prices, which the airline attributes primarily to the ongoing conflict involving Iran. The Irish low-cost carrier is lowering its full-year passenger forecast for the period ending March 2027, cutting targets from 216 million to 214 million passengers. This move aims to reduce losses during the traditionally unprofitable winter months, with expected savings on fuel costs estimated at around €70 million to €100 million.

The airline has hedged approximately 80% of its jet fuel requirements at a price of $67 per barrel through to the spring, protecting itself from the current spot market price of roughly $140 per barrel. However, the portion of fuel currently unhedged exposes Ryanair to significantly higher costs, prompting the company to limit capacity, especially on higher-cost routes in France and Germany. CEO Michael O’Leary described these cuts as a “one-off” strategic adjustment to reduce exposure during the challenging winter season, a period when demand traditionally softens.

Despite these challenges, Ryanair expects to maintain growth during the busier summer months, projecting passenger numbers to increase by more than 5% to around 145 million from April to October 2026. The airline also indicated that fares, which had been trending slightly downward over the late summer, could rise substantially if fuel prices remain elevated through the next year. Ryanair warns that less well-hedged European short-haul carriers may struggle to maintain current capacity levels or even survive the winter, potentially leading to increased airfares as supply tightens.

This outlook comes amid a broader market environment of high and volatile jet fuel prices driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Brent crude recently approached $97 per barrel, heightening concerns over supply disruptions and further pressuring airlines worldwide. Industry experts note that fuel costs have more than doubled compared to early 2026 levels, with jet fuel prices rising more sharply than crude oil itself.

Meanwhile, rival low-cost carrier Wizz Air reported slower passenger growth in August compared to July, with travel numbers rising 25.9% year-on-year but at a tempered pace. Despite these pressures, Ryanair stated it remains positioned to achieve profitability for the full financial year, albeit below its record earnings from the previous year.

The company’s shift toward capacity management reflects a broader trend among European airlines, as several carriers have signaled or implemented reductions amid increasing fuel expenses. British Airways’ parent firm, IAG, for instance, curtailed plans for capacity expansion earlier in the year due to rising oil prices. Ryanair’s decision signals growing caution in the sector as airlines balance cost pressures with demand recovery.