Saudi Arabia is facing escalating challenges as missile attacks from Iranian-backed Houthi forces increasingly target the kingdom’s critical infrastructure and oil facilities. Since early October, these strikes have intensified, culminating in a missile attack on October 10 that killed 13 people, wounded more than 300, and forced the closure of Riyadh’s main airport for a week. The attacks, launched from Yemen and Iraq, have occurred almost daily in recent weeks, raising concerns about the kingdom’s stability and economic outlook.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who less than a year ago projected growing regional influence and an ambitious agenda to diversify Saudi Arabia’s economy, has been largely confined to shelters in Jeddah amid the attacks, according to an international source. Efforts to coordinate defense have included emergency meetings with allies in the Mecca Pact, notably Turkey and Pakistan, but no significant military escalation or calls for a full-scale defense mobilization have been made publicly.

The attacks represent a direct threat to Saudi Arabia’s oil industry—its economic lifeline—as well as to Mohammad bin Salman’s efforts to develop alternative revenue sources like tourism, mining, and technology sectors. Saudi Arabia’s Finance Ministry forecasts a 3.6% decline in gross domestic product in 2026, with oil sector activity expected to fall nearly 22%, marking a significant setback for an economy heavily reliant on hydrocarbon exports. The tourism sector has also contracted by an estimated 5% to 6% in early 2026, with declines likely accelerating amid the widening security crisis.

The kingdom’s response has been cautious, with no public alerts or sirens warning civilians of incoming missile strikes, while schools have been closed without official explanations. Some officials seek to project resilience, with Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman emphasizing that fear has no place in Saudi society, though privately concerns mount. Government leaders have largely been absent from public view, and domestically, the population faces an unprecedented atmosphere of uncertainty.

Internationally, Saudi Arabia finds itself relatively isolated in confronting the Houthi threat. According to Saudi officials, the United States continues to provide intelligence support but is reluctant to engage militarily against the Houthis. The kingdom has unsuccessfully requested Chinese authorities to halt alleged support to Iran and the Houthis, including the transfer of missile components, but Beijing denies involvement. Israel has offered assistance to help counteract the missile attacks; however, official Saudi sources indicate that diplomatic ties with Israel remain off the table.

The strategic environment remains complex. Saudi Arabia maintains diplomatic representation in Tehran despite recent hostilities, with the crown prince seeking a diplomatic resolution to regional tensions. However, restrictive U.S. policies, including the blocking of Iranian oil exports under former President Donald Trump’s administration, complicate prospects for negotiations. Analysts express uncertainty over U.S. intentions beyond the upcoming U.S. midterm elections, with potential shifts in policy carrying significant implications for Gulf security.

While Saudi Arabia continues to rely on its longstanding alliance with the United States, historical grievances and disagreements have tempered bilateral cooperation over the decades. Despite this, Riyadh’s senior officials emphasize the enduring importance of the U.S.-Saudi relationship amid ongoing regional instability.

The capacity of Saudi Arabia’s military to effectively counter the Houthi missile threat remains under scrutiny. Despite a defense budget exceeding those of regional rivals Iran and Israel, Saudi forces have struggled to prevent recurrent attacks on vital infrastructure. Observers caution that while Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman retains control over the military, and despite internal opposition, the kingdom’s current difficulties highlight broader challenges in balancing regional power dynamics.

As the conflict unfolds, analysts suggest that both Saudi Arabia and the United States face significant setbacks, contrasting with China’s growing influence in the region. The extension of U.S. military commitments in the Gulf remains uncertain, and the evolving situation underscores the complex and fluid nature of Middle Eastern geopolitics.

Prince Turki Al-Faisal, former Saudi intelligence chief and ambassador to the United States, reflected on the current era, describing it as unprecedented in complexity and unpredictability, with efforts at resolution often leading to further complications. With King Salman’s health reportedly fragile, the prospect of Mohammed bin Salman ascending to the throne adds another layer of urgency to the kingdom’s quest for stability amid mounting external threats.