U.S. intelligence agencies have concluded that Saudi Arabia has not ruled out pursuing a nuclear weapons program, according to classified assessments reviewed by officials and detailed in reports to Congress. These findings come amid a contentious review of a recent agreement facilitating expanded civilian nuclear cooperation between the United States and Saudi Arabia.

The deal, initiated under the Trump administration, would authorize American companies to engage in nuclear energy projects worth tens of billions of dollars within Saudi Arabia. While the agreement restricts uranium enrichment to below 5 percent initially, it includes provisions allowing enrichment to rise to 20 percent following further studies and formal consent. Although uranium enriched to 20 percent remains below weapons-grade levels, it represents a significant increase, raising concerns among some U.S. lawmakers about its potential military applications.

The agreement is currently under a 90-day congressional review period, during which legislators can attempt to block its implementation. A coalition of Democratic senators, led by Ed Markey of Massachusetts and Jeff Merkley of Oregon, criticized the administration for loosening long-standing restrictions and conceding to Saudi demands that could enable uranium enrichment with weapons implications. The senators have expressed skepticism toward Saudi assurances regarding the peaceful intent of their nuclear program. Merkley questioned the necessity of domestic uranium enrichment if the program were solely civilian.

Saudi officials have reiterated their position that the nuclear initiative is peaceful and will be conducted with transparency and responsibility. Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman has emphasized these commitments, although the government declined to respond directly to recent inquiries. Meanwhile, the U.S. State Department has defended the agreement, asserting that the United States does not support a Saudi nuclear weapons effort and that the deal incorporates the strongest achievable nonproliferation safeguards.

Despite these assurances, there remain unresolved concerns within the intelligence community and among nuclear experts. Notably, the agreement does not mandate that Saudi Arabia adopt the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) Additional Protocol, which allows more comprehensive inspections of nuclear sites. Twenty nonproliferation specialists, including former IAEA Director General Hans Blix, warned Congress that this limitation could hinder the detection of any secret weapons-related activities.

The backdrop to heightened vigilance includes remarks by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in 2018, indicating that Saudi Arabia would seek nuclear weapons if Iran developed them. Regional tensions have escalated following U.S.-backed Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and 2026, which reportedly left some Iranian enriched uranium undamaged. Concerns among U.S. lawmakers persist that Saudi Arabia’s nuclear developments could intensify a broader arms race in the Middle East.