During a recent visit to Saudi Arabia, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney found common ground with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman over the challenges faced by middle powers amid growing unpredictability from the United States. Both Canada and Saudi Arabia are grappling with shifts in U.S. foreign policy under the Trump administration, which has introduced new complexities in longstanding alliances and regional dynamics.

Saudi Arabia, long reliant on security and investment ties with the United States, now confronts a more volatile environment shaped by heightened conflict and economic pressure in the Middle East. The kingdom, alongside other Gulf states, had advised against the U.S.-Israel confrontation with Iran but must now navigate the repercussions of the ongoing conflict that has destabilized the region.

Despite the turmoil, Saudi Arabia has emerged as a relative economic winner. The International Monetary Fund projects 1.7 percent growth for the Saudi economy in 2026, although government officials remain cautious, recognizing that conditions in the region could deteriorate rapidly. After years of efforts to prevent wider conflict, Riyadh now contends with renewed tensions between the United States and Iran, highlighted by a delicate memorandum of understanding in June addressing the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and Tehran’s nuclear program.

For Gulf states, Iran’s arsenal of missiles, drones, and allied militias pose the most pressing threat, surpassing concerns about nuclear development. Saudi Arabia views negotiation, despite its flawed premises, as preferable to continued warfare and has proposed a non-aggression pact with Iran. Tehran, however, has declined such overtures, opting to maintain leverage by encouraging the United States to withdraw from regional engagements.

Relations between Saudi Arabia and the United States face complications beyond the Iran conflict. Following years of negotiation, the two nations reached a landmark nuclear energy agreement permitting uranium enrichment within Saudi borders. Yet, shortly after the deal was announced, President Trump added a new condition via social media: Saudi Arabia must first normalize relations with Israel. Riyadh dismissed this demand, viewing it as unrealistic and maintaining that progress toward Palestinian statehood is a prerequisite for normalizing ties with Israel.

Saudi Arabia, reflecting wider sentiment in the region, resists a U.S.-backed regional order centered on Israel. The episode underscored the influence Israel holds over certain U.S. policies, even as there is criticism from various quarters over Israel’s opposition to Saudi nuclear development. Critics argue that Israel’s stance appears contradictory given its own nuclear arsenal and role in provoking regional conflict, which in turn increases the likelihood of nuclear proliferation in the Gulf.

Compounding these geopolitical tensions, the conflict with the Houthi rebels in Yemen threatens to reignite after several years of uneasy calm. The Houthis have rebuilt their military capabilities and resumed attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and shipping lanes, particularly targeting the Bab al-Mandab strait, a critical route for Saudi exports. In response, the United States recently expedited a $2 billion arms sale to Saudi Arabia focused on precision weaponry, indicating increased military support. Should hostilities escalate, Riyadh is expected to seek further U.S. intelligence, targeting assistance, and missile defense systems.

Ultimately, Saudi Arabia’s experience underscores the limitations faced by middle powers striving for greater autonomy amid the volatility of regional conflict and the strategic imperatives imposed by their powerful allies.