Saudi Arabia is facing increasing security challenges from Houthi rebels in Yemen, whose attacks have extended deep into the kingdom, targeting key infrastructure including King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh. The escalation has raised questions about the effectiveness of Riyadh’s regional alliances and its approach to normalization with Israel.
Since the outbreak of intensified Houthi offensives, the kingdom has struggled to protect vital oil export routes in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, with their 1,200-kilometer East-West Pipeline also suffering missile damage attributed to an Iranian-backed Shia militia in Iraq. These disruptions have raised concerns over Saudi Arabia’s ability to maintain its status as a leading global oil supplier.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s recent security initiatives have yet to yield tangible results. His attempt to forge a tripartite security arrangement with Turkey and Pakistan, announced in August, has not solidified a unified response. Pakistan, despite stationing approximately 3,000 troops in Saudi Arabia, maintains a preference for dialogue with the Houthis. Turkey has historically opposed Saudi military actions against the Houthis, reflecting its complex regional stance. Political complications involving Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, including prior interactions with former U.S. President Donald Trump regarding potential ground interventions in Iran, further complicate this alliance.
Reports indicate that Crown Prince Mohammed reached out to Trump on two occasions around the 25th anniversary of the September 11 attacks, seeking U.S. air support against advancing Houthi forces. In response, Trump reportedly urged the crown prince to abandon the longstanding precondition of Palestinian statehood for normalization and to join the Abraham Accords, a diplomatic framework facilitating relations between Israel and several Arab states.
Critics argue that Riyadh’s strategy of engaging Iran via a China-mediated normalization deal in 2023 has backfired, intensifying the kingdom’s vulnerability to Houthi and Iranian proxy aggression. They suggest that integrating into the Abraham Accords could strengthen Saudi Arabia’s security posture by fostering military and intelligence cooperation with Israel and the United Arab Emirates, potentially coordinated through U.S. Central Command.
With Saudi Aramco generating record dividend payments exceeding $85 billion last year, Saudi Arabia’s economic potential remains significant. However, ongoing security threats and regional instability pose challenges to sustaining economic growth and maintaining geopolitical influence.
Observers emphasize that the kingdom’s future resilience may hinge on recalibrating its foreign policy and security alliances. This includes reconsidering its position on normalization with Israel as a means to counterbalance Iranian influence and secure critical infrastructure and trade routes. Whether Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will alter his approach and formally join the Abraham Accords remains a focal point for analysts monitoring Middle East security dynamics.
