Saudi Arabia is grappling with a significant energy disruption after a key pipeline was damaged in an attack attributed to an Iran-backed militia, prompting the kingdom to halt operations on the vital East-West pipeline. The shutdown, announced last Friday, threatens to remove approximately 4 percent of the world’s oil supply from global markets, exacerbating already elevated energy prices.
The East-West pipeline, which stretches about 750 miles (1,200 kilometers) across Saudi Arabia from the oil-rich eastern region near Abqaiq to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, has been the kingdom’s main export route since the outbreak of conflict in Iran. The closure comes amid escalating tensions between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi militia in Yemen, who recently took control of a strategic Red Sea port and claimed responsibility for several attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure, including a reported downing of a Saudi fighter jet and a drone strike near the holy city of Mecca.
Analysts warn that the damage to the pipeline could have severe implications for global energy security. Amena Bakr, head of Middle East & OPEC+ Insights at Kpler, described the situation as unprecedented, highlighting simultaneous disruptions to major waterways and heightened proxy conflicts, with no diplomatic resolution in sight. Brent crude oil prices rose to around $107 per barrel, a 50 percent increase from prewar levels, reflecting fears of a prolonged disruption.
The extent of the damage and the timeline for repairs have not been officially disclosed by Saudi authorities or Saudi Aramco, the state oil company. Satellite imagery reviewed shows damage at two pumping stations along the pipeline, but estimates of repair time vary. Bakr suggested that full restoration might take five to six weeks, though partial repairs could be possible sooner. Experts referenced Saudi Arabia’s previous responses to Houthi attacks, noting that the 2019 Aramco assault and a similar incident in April saw operations restored within days to a week.
Washington-based Brookings Institution fellow Robin Brooks expressed skepticism about worst-case scenarios, citing historical quick repair efforts and emerging signs of ongoing repairs. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright projected a “brief and temporary interruption” and anticipated a swift resumption of oil flow through the pipeline.
Saudi Arabia maintains significant oil storage capacity, including roughly 24 million barrels at the Red Sea port of Yanbu, though some analysts estimate the current reserves there may only cover three to six days of exports. The East-West pipeline was developed as a strategic bypass to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical but vulnerable chokepoint for oil shipments, especially after the recent reduction of traffic through the strait from about 130 vessels daily prewar to around 20 recently.
The Houthis’ control over the Bab al-Mandab Strait, at the southern end of the Red Sea, has forced Saudi Arabia to reroute oil shipments back through the Strait of Hormuz, despite ongoing risks. The U.S. Navy has supported these operations, escorting tankers along safer routes near Oman to mitigate threats from Iran-backed forces.
Economic analyses highlight the broader impact of sustained pipeline disruptions. Capital Economics projects that each week of closure, coupled with continued limits on using the Strait of Hormuz, could reduce Saudi Arabia’s economic output by at least 0.2 percent. As the kingdom contends with these challenges, the global energy market remains on alert for further developments in the volatile Persian Gulf and Red Sea regions.